US kills al-Qaeda leader, but not the threat the group poses

“Armed and dangerous” and with a $35 million bounty on his head, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was declared dead by US President Joe Biden this morning. The “most wanted terrorist” was eliminated during an airstrike in Afghanistan on Saturday, sending a clear signal the US does not forgive or forget.

“No matter how long it takes, no matter where you hide, if you are a threat to our people, the United States will find you and take you out,” Biden said in an address this morning.

Despite al-Qaeda’s lower profile in recent years, the death of the co-founder and leader of the 34-year-old terrorist organisation is significant. Professor Greg Barton, chair in global Islamic politics at Deakin Institute, told Crikey that although al-Qaeda has been on the decline since Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011, the world would be wrong to dismiss it as belonging to a past era.

“They are a very resilient and persistent threat,” he said. “The real question is: are al-Qaeda at an inflection point for a comeback course?”

Currently it has capacity to operate only in places without stable government, but Barton said that could well change with new leadership and a friendly regime in Afghanistan: “It’s risky to downplay and dismiss the threat posed in the longer run.”

Al-Zawahiri took over as head of al-Qaeda in 2011 after bin Laden died. Under his leadership, it suffered a series of image problems. Most notable was the irreparable brand damage done by its split from ISIS in 2013-14. Barton said al-Zawahiri was not a charismatic leader and kept a relatively low profile, operating more as a behind-the-scenes bureaucrat than a front-facing propagandist.

Biden said al-Zawahiri “made videos, including in recent weeks calling for his followers to attack the United States and our allies”.

The growth of police counter-intelligence post 9/11 has made it increasingly hard for terrorism networks to operate without detection. The US has had a field day with intel, making a business of killing top personnel in terrorist organisations. This year’s kill list includes top Islamic State leader Maher al-Agal, taken out in an airstrike in Syria. Al-Zawahiri will no doubt not be the last.

Whether his death is simply 9/11 residue for the US, a nail in the coffin for al-Qaeda, or the beginning of a new reign of terror remains to be seen.