A bundle of energy

POWER BROKERS

We should threaten the big three gas giants with export limits to get them to lower energy prices for Australian homes and businesses, according to Rod Sims. The former competition watchdog chair says export controls would scare the pants off Origin Energy, AGL and EnergyAustralia, Guardian Australia reports, and besides, they have an “obligation” to provide energy at a good price at home before shipping it all off overseas. Sims reckons the fuel should go for less than $10 a gigajoule domestically, which is less than half this year’s spot prices of more than $20. Would we do it? Hmm. Treasurer Jim Chalmers told the National Press Club he’s looking at a bunch of interventions, and there’s been chatter before about a trigger that would force supply into our local market.

If we do nothing, households could be paying an extra $1300 on energy in the next two years, the SMH reports, but Chalmers says it’s just too late to stop the surge in prices we’re living through right now. Here’s what the budget says is coming: a 20% rise in electricity before Christmas and a 20% rise in gas prices before mid next year. To June 2024, a 30% rise in electricity prices and a 20% rise in gas prices. Compounding spits out that 56% overall figure you might’ve seen around. So what’s on the table? A supertax on energy giants to fund a household rebate, and a cap on gas prices — The Australian ($) reports the union told Prime Minister Anthony Albanese that without a price cap, factories would be forced to close — and fast. One thing’s for sure, Chalmers says — any financial support from the government is off the table, the SMH reports, even though NSW Treasurer Matt Kean points out the UK, German and French governments were all providing direct payments to help out households.

[free_worm]

A SORE POINT

Our vaccine technical advisory group didn’t know the COVID vaccine posed heart risks until five months after it approved the jab, news.com.au reports. The Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) revealed the side effect from the Moderna and Pfizer jabs was not known until May 2021, though the heart condition affected only a very small group of people. Interestingly, the risk was lower if you got the AstraZeneca vaccine — which is ironic considering all that drama over the AZ jab last year, as the BBC reports. It comes as Australia’s peak medical bodies are reeling from the Albanese government’s decision to end the shared funding deal between the states and the Commonwealth. It was a COVID-era policy that the budget confirmed would expire on New Year’s Eve, Guardian Australia reports. But the AMA says our hospitals are already at breaking point, and there’s a “very high probability” of another COVID wave before the end of the year. It comes as the budget earmarked $2.6 billion into our ongoing COVID response, the ABC reports, though unlike the UK and US, it failed to allocate a single dollar for long COVID research.

Meanwhile in Queensland, a DNA lab manager has told an inquiry he ignored warnings from his team that its testing was misleading the courts, The Courier-Mail ($) reports. The Commission of Inquiry into Forensic DNA Testing in Queensland is examining the state lab’s failure to test thousands of samples correctly. Some say thousands of criminal investigations — including for murder and rape allegations — could’ve been messed up by scientists saying there was no DNA, or not enough DNA, found, The Australian ($) continues. The threshold for DNA, which the inquiry has been told was introduced to save the lab time and money, was scrapped in June when the inquiry kicked off.

COURT IN THE MIDDLE

Former prime minister Scott Morrison’s apology to former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins risked a fair trial, according to the former lawyers of the man accused of sexually assaulting her. Morrison apologised to Higgins in February “for the terrible things that took place here”, saying the Parliament should’ve been a safe place but turned out to be a “nightmare”. The apology was one of the reasons Bruce Lehrmann sought to have his trial halted indefinitely, the SMH reports, as he argued it implied he was guilty before he’d had his day in court. It comes as the jury is continuing to deliberate in Lehrmann’s criminal trial after five days.

To another trial now and the Federal Court has ordered the Commonwealth to enter mediation with the Indonesian children who were jailed in adult prisons, the ABC reports. More than 120 Indonesian boys (now men) who were trying to gain entry to Australia via boat were embroiled in the saga — the AFP’s controversial X-ray technique used the wrist bones to assess age, but Australia’s Human Rights Commission found the method was “inherently flawed”. Then attorney-general Christian Porter refused to refer the cases of two young teens to appeal, saying a court “could not reasonably conclude that a miscarriage of justice has occurred”, as Guardian Australia reports, even though six of the eight boys had their convictions overturned by a WA court at the beginning of the year. Staying in WA a moment, Liberal Clan MP Ian Goodenough had reported “forged texts” to police that show him threatening to quit the Liberal Party and sit as an independent, The West ($) reports. The paper had the receipts — it showed him the screengrabs earlier this month, and he retorted that he “fully [denied] sending those messages”.

ON A LIGHTER NOTE

Police are warning businesses in the Northern Territory to watch out for fake $100 notes. The counterfeit currency is identifiable by “subtle differences”, the prim instructions read. For one, there’s a big honkin’ Steve Irwin face on the front. Turn the note over and you’re met with the stern glare of Alf Stewart from Home and Away, lesser known by his actual name Ray Meagher. The unlikely duo replaced Sir John Monash, a war hero and widely respected engineer, and Dame Nellie Melba, one of the most famous singers in the late Victorian era, as The New Daily reports. OK, but what if folks just figured we modernised the moola? The police continue there are other telltale signs one can be on alert for. You know the Shrine of Remembrance? It “is now John Farnham“, the note from the police states frankly.

Still, you may be thinking, it wouldn’t be that weird to see the trio of Aussie blokes on our notes. For those who need further instructions on how to spot the counterfeit cash, simply look at whether the word “Australia”, typically written in rich, cursive across the pale green note, is instead spelt “Straylia”. Then you will know for sure you are holding a fake bill, the police say. So where did these patriotic notes come from? They were part of a TV production but were stolen in Alice Springs, though we don’t really know how much was taken — in addition to the $100 Detective Acting Senior Sergeant Robert Kent warned there might be fake $10s, $20s and $50s in circulation. Who will adorn the front and back of those counterfeit notes? The SBS’s Lee Lin Chin? Agro from Agro’s Cartoon Connection? That kid who threw an egg at conservative then senator Fraser Anning’s noggin? We can only wonder.

Hoping you can see what’s real today in your world too.

SAY WHAT?

Inflation is the dragon we need to slay … But there’s a right way to spend and there’s a wrong way to spend. And perhaps surprising to some was our determination to deliver cost-of-living relief only where it met very specific and very strict criteria.

Jim Chalmers

Someone has been enjoying the Game of Thrones prequel, House of the Dragon, it seems. The treasurer made the comments while defending his austere budget, which comes as inflation has jumped to 7.3%.

CRIKEY RECAP

Freshman MP’s tax cut ‘stunt’ unites government and opposition against Greens

Anton Nilsson

Oct 26, 2022

23

“A ‘stunt’ by a freshman Greens MP to force a debate on a supply bill was roundly criticised in Parliament, even uniting the opposition and government, in what one academic says highlights the party’s newfound hubris after the election results. Griffith MP Max Chandler-Mather told Crikey on Wednesday he had no regrets and that the government was feigning ‘faux outrage’ to distract from a set of controversial tax cuts.

“The night before, a full hour after the treasurer’s budget speech when most of the chamber had emptied and the MPs left were going through the motions of passing appropriations and supply bills, Chandler-Mather moved to amend a set of bills in order to make a protest speech about the government’s stage three tax cuts.”

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The kids are alright: Proud Boys face college pushback in Pennsylvania

Guy Rundle

Oct 26, 2022

69

“The mood was alternating between edgy and violent, which is very much the mood of the country at the moment. Donald Trump, in a rally in Texas, looked forward to journalists being jailed and raped in prison; the Republican anti-abortion candidates now oppose abortion, even if the mother’s life is at risk; Kanye West is talking about the Jewish cabal, about killing Jews, and has just been dropped by Adidas — which takes some doing; President Biden has warned Russia not to use tactical nuclear weapons, like it was a trade dispute.

“On CNN that morning, a story on the sentencing of the Parkland high school mass killer was interrupted by breaking news about a high school shooter in St Louis. The latter killed a teacher and a student before police got him. He left a note saying he was lonely and isolated and had never had a girlfriend. He had also left 600 rounds in 12 magazines as ammo drops around the school he was about to shoot up. On it goes.”

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Did lockdowns cause more harm than good, or did they save lives? Independent report lends weight to anti-closure cause

Adam Schwab

Oct 26, 2022

27

“For lockdowns to have been genuinely effective, regions that refused to take such measures would need to have experienced far higher excess deaths and COVID-related deaths. Perhaps counterintuitively, in many cases, the opposite occurred — with some regions that locked down instead experiencing more excess deaths. The most obvious (but certainly not only) example was oft-criticised Sweden, which took a lighter-touch approach.

“Sweden didn’t forcibly shut down non-essential workplaces. Instead, Sweden encouraged people to work from home and closed senior schools and universities (but allowed younger students to continue to attend in-person classes).  Perhaps paradoxically, Sweden suffered fewer excess deaths than many other countries that undertook lengthy lockdowns, including Peru, Italy, the US, Spain, Chile, Britain, the Netherlands, Germany and France.”

READ ALL ABOUT IT

Attack on Shiraz shrine kills 15: Iranian state media (Al Jazeera)

Putin watches first Russian nuclear drill since invasion of Ukraine (BBC)

Lebanon begins ‘voluntary’ repatriation of Syrian refugees (Al Jazeera)

Atmospheric levels of all three greenhouse gases hit record high (The Guardian)

Dubai company eyeing takeover and lease of Ports of Auckland business (NZ Herald)

US mortgage interest rates jump to 7.16%, highest since 2001 (Reuters)

Germany to legalise possession of up to 30g of cannabis and sale for recreational purposes (EuroNews)

THE COMMENTARIAT

Our most pressing economic challenge is soaring power prices, and the government needs simple solutions, fast — David Speers (ABC): “Higher energy costs are also one of the main drivers of inflation, pushing up prices across the economy. According to the budget, higher electricity and gas prices will contribute 0.75% to inflation this financial year and 1% in 2023-24. Without this pressure from power prices, inflation would be considerably lower. Real wage growth would kick in earlier. This is an urgent policy problem for the government, with no sign it’s yet worked out what to do.

“The government rightly points out there are factors at play here beyond its control. Energy prices are soaring globally due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Nor has a decade of shifting domestic policy positions on climate and energy helped. And yet, the notion of an energy exporting super-power like Australia being unable to provide affordable energy at home becomes increasingly difficult to comprehend. As does the confusion over Labor’s pre-election promise (still being made after the war in Ukraine had begun) that power prices would fall by $275 by 2025.”

Childcare, leave, housing: where women won in Labor’s first budget — Nicole Pedersen-McKinnon (The SMH): “In a policy already announced, from July next year, a higher income eligibility threshold of $530,000 will lift subsidy rates for 96% of families using childcare. Under $80,000, the refund will be 90% for a first child. The rates are also more generous for subsequent children. The idea of the plan for cheaper childcare is to reduce barriers to women’s workforce participation by making early childhood education more affordable. The cost is $4.7 billion over four years, with the government resisting calls to bring in the changes early, in January, to try and ease the skills and labour shortage.

“In a bid to ‘support more equitable distribution of work and care between parents’, $531.6 million over the same four years as above will fund changes to paid parental leave. This, too, was announced ahead of the budget and lets either parent take paid leave that will reach 26 weeks (up from 18 weeks) by July 2026. Currently, the payment goes only to the birth parent with fathers and partners receiving just two weeks’ additionally. From July next year, parents will be able to take the leave in blocks as small as a day at a time. The aim is greater flexibility and promoting more equal distribution of paid and unpaid work in households, the government’s women’s budget statement says. Income testing the payments at a whole-of-family income of $350,000, instead of the individual income test currently set at $156,647, will allow an extra 2200 families to access the scheme and benefit women with incomes above that level who are the primary income earners.”

HOLD THE FRONT PAGE

WHAT’S ON TODAY

Online

• Minister for International Development and the Pacific Pat Conroy will speak at the Australian Council for International Development’s national conference which will explore climate action.

Eora Nation Country (also known as Sydney)

• The New York Times’s Jane Coaston and ABC’s Annabel Crabb will chat about the 2022 US midterm elections, held at the University of Sydney.

• Former Australian army intelligence analyst Clinton Fernandes will chat about his new book, Sub-imperial Power, in a talk held at Glee Books.

Yuggera Country (also known as Brisbane)

• Ethnographer Paul Memmott will chat about his new book, Gunyah Goondie + Wurley: The Aboriginal Architecture of Australia, at Avid Reader bookshop. You can also catch this online.

Kulin Nation Country (also known as Melbourne)

• The 2022 Miles Franklin Literary Award winner Jennifer Down will be in conversation with acclaimed writer Melanie Cheng in an event at Montalto by the Wheeler Centre.