What does it take for a teal victory? Financial details give a hint

The kind of financial firepower needed for a community independent to oust a major party MP is on display in the election returns for 2022 election candidates released today.

The reason the data encourages us to look at independents is because donations to major parties are revealed annually — most major party MPs and candidates appear in today’s data with nil returns, because their party handled all the finances. We’ll have to wait until February 1 for the data on what the major parties received, under our ludicrous disclosure laws that make us wait up to 19 months to find out who was giving what to major parties.

All of the successful independents who took seats off the Liberals reported big total donations. Zali Steggall, who cemented her grip on Warringah when Scott Morrison imposed the disastrous Katherine Deves on the NSW Liberals, was the lowest earner, reporting just under $900,000 in donations. Allegra Spender in Wentworth reported $1.9 million; Kylea Tink in North Sydney and Monique Ryan in Kooyong both $1.8 million; Zoe Daniel in Goldstein $1.7 million; Sophie Scamps in Mackellar $1.6 million; Kate Chaney in Curtin $1.3 million.

Much of the press coverage today is on the role played by Simon Holmes à Court’s Climate 200. For example, Climate 200 gave Spender over $600,000 and Tink over $800,000 and Ryan over $700,000. But the successful independents all garnered large donations from other sources. Steggall, for example, received $55,000 from businessman and conservationist Robert Purves; Tink received $99,000 from financial trader Robert Keldoulis, who gave $50,000 to Spender, and also received $50,000 from Private Media shareholder Nick Fairfax, $100,000 from local Robert Taylor, who also gave $70,000 to Scamps; Chaney received $25,000 from Perth pathologist Wayne Smit.

But what the successful independents also have in common is genuinely large popular funding. Spender and Chaney each reported more than 600 individual donors. Tink had 945 (including myself); Scamps had 828. Steggall reported a remarkable 1690 donors; Zoe Daniel had nearly 2000. And Monique Ryan had more than 3700 donors. Such large donor bases can generate hundreds of thousands of extra dollars, turning million-dollar election warchests into much bigger sums, along with the feet on the ground that a large volunteer group can provide.

In comparison, unsuccessful independent Jo Dyer in Boothby had a huge donor base — more than 1000 — but little support from Climate 200 (just $20,000) and no big donors, leaving her with just under $200,000. Georgia Steele, who performed strongly in Hughes, had $27,000 from Keldoulis and around $300,000 from Climate 200 but only around 350 donors, so she raised just $660,000 — clearly not enough to out-poll Labor in order to pose a threat to the Liberals. Suzie Holt, who pushed climate denialist Garth Hamilton to preferences in the regional seat of Groom, was hampered by low donor numbers and no support from major independent donors.

The narrative from media critics of the independents focuses on Climate 200 and support from wealthy donors. Those two factors indeed seem to be important to their ability to be competitive with far better resourced major parties. But genuine community support via many hundreds, even thousands, of donors is also critical, and doesn’t fit at all conveniently with attempts to portray them as tools of elite interests. When thousands of people want to contribute to your campaign, it’s both a sign that you pose a challenge and that you have the means to make that challenge formidable.