‘Perfect storm’: what Labor got wrong in its historic defeat in Fowler

When Labor examined what went wrong when it ran then senator Kristina Keneally in Fowler, it missed a crucial detail, says Dai Le, the independent who won the seat in May. 

Labor analysis of the 2022 election released earlier this week mentions Fowler more than a dozen times, describing the loss of the western Sydney seat as a wake-up call for the party and a reminder that “no seat is safe”. But nowhere in the analysis does it mention that Keneally, who lives on an island in Sydney’s northern beaches, was an outsider to the community. 

“It was a major factor,” Le told Crikey. “When you’re in the polling booth, so many people said [about Keneally]: ‘What do you know about our area? We’ve never seen you here.’

“I’ve been around for so long; they’ve seen how much I’ve worked. They trusted me. I’m not part of the major parties, and they’ve seen what the Liberal Party has done to me, and they’ve seen what the Labor Party has done.” 

Labor took an 18.5% swing against it, and lost Fowler for the first time since the seat was created. It cost the party one of its most prominent politicians, who would have been an obvious frontbencher in Anthony Albanese’s government, and prompted Labor to do some soul-searching.

The answer, according to the party? “The prominence of a local independent candidate backed by a groundswell of campaign supporters, Labor’s candidate selection, and the local campaign strategy were all contributing factors to the result,” it said. 

“The circumstances generated a ‘perfect storm’ that were exploited by the independent candidate.” 

Le, who stood as a local Liberal candidate several times before being expelled by the party in 2016 for going independent, said people in the area were fed up with business as usual: “A lot of people were expressing they’re tired of the parties; they said we’ve had enough of major parties.”  

Le dismissed any suggestion she was still aligned with the Liberal Party: “That’s Labor Party supporters. They would say that. It’s fine, the community, at the end of the day, is what’s important for me, and they know who I am.”

But Le said she didn’t feel part of the teal independents on the crossbench, either. 

“They were supported by a major donor,” she said. “Out of the 151 MPs, I can tell you I’m the only one that’s self-funded.”

That independence from the rest of the independents was on display last week when Le abstained from voting on the censure motion against former prime minister Scott Morrison over his secret ministries. Ten independents voted yes, and only one, Bob Katter, voted no. 

Le decided not to vote at all, but said that shouldn’t be seen as support for Morrison’s actions: “What he did was unethical, and my understanding is, [according to] the solicitor-general, not illegal.

“But a censure doesn’t actually provide any kind of results, it doesn’t actually do anything. It’s mainly a political move … Of course major parties will be political, but I think I was hoping [Labor] would be different, but then when they did the censure motion, it showed to me that they’re just like the other side.”

Did losing Fowler serve Labor right? Let us know by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.