Abortion, Trump, Ukraine: what will shape the United States in 2023?

What a difference a year makes.

Twelve months ago, Ukrainians celebrated Christmas in peace, albeit with Russian forces massing along their borders. The record shows that Russia attacked Ukraine, but the invasion did not go to plan. Buoyed by Western financial and military support, Ukraine withstood the onslaught and has now seized momentum in the conflict. Energy and commodity prices soared after Vladimir Putin’s aggression, exacerbating global inflationary pressures.

Joe Biden’s administration in the US suffered setbacks on voting rights protections, climate change mitigation, tax reform and prescription drug prices. Former president Donald Trump chased revenge by targeting Republicans who had dared to impeach him. GOP officials anticipated a landslide victory in the midterm elections and manoeuvred to capture key state offices that would deliver them critical influence over the 2024 presidential elections. Supply chain disruptions, pent-up consumer demand and corporate price gouging combined to spike inflation to 40-year highs.

The Supreme Court stood poised to overturn Roe v Wade, reversing 50 years of reproductive freedom for American women. Democrats rallied to enact landmark legislation, propelling Biden’s key agenda planks through a closely divided Congress. The Supreme Court’s archconservative justices did reverse Roe — but their theocratic decree backfired when the Republicans’ red wave dwindled to a trickle in the midterms.

Of course, Trump hogged the headlines throughout, exhibiting his hallmark brazenness and bluster. An FBI search uncovered dozens of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort, and a Manhattan jury convicted the Trump Organization of 17 felonies stemming from criminal tax fraud. After three successive national election failures, Trump seems more of a loser than ever. None of this has deterred him from pursuing another tilt at the Oval Office.

To cap it all, this week the January 6 committee delivered its findings detailing the multi-layered conspiracy behind Trump’s attempted coup during the Capitol Hill riots, and how close it came to succeeding. The committee referred Trump to the Department of Justice (DOJ) with the recommendation that he be prosecuted on four criminal counts connected to the insurrection.

So what will we see in 2023?

Trump indictments

It’s a matter of when, not if. Trump will be indicted on multiple felony charges. The litany of criminal probes confronting him would make a mob boss wilt. Election interference in Georgia. An attempted coup. Classified documents unlawfully secreted inside his properties. Revived scrutiny from the Manhattan district attorney after the Trump Org’s convictions.

Various grand juries have been meeting to hear witness testimony relating to these crimes. Recently appointed independent special counsel Jack Smith assumed command of the DOJ’s investigation last month and will determine which charges are best supported by the avalanche of evidence.

The Mar-a-Lago documents case is the easiest to make. Trump is trapped, and you can bet there will be accomplices prepared to turn against him. Expect an unprecedented decision to prosecute the former president early in the new year.

Presidential contest

The presidential primary race kicks off in the first quarter of 2023. Trump has already announced his bid, in an effort to repel Republican rivals and stave off criminal prosecution. Although diminished by his loser tag and swamped by scandals, he remains the dominant force within the GOP.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is being spruiked as his replacement, but he’s not the only prospect harbouring higher ambitions. Mike Pence, Ted Cruz and Glenn Youngkin among others fancy their chances. What they secretly hope is that the DOJ will finish Trump for them so they can avoid a direct showdown and then cynically blame Democrats for partisan politicking.

History shows it’s far too soon to predict who will prevail in their crowded field. This won’t stop relentless speculation all year long.

Biden will run again. For much of 2022, he faced a chorus of cries that he was too old to seek a second term and that he should step aside in favour of younger blood. However, after racking up a string of legislative achievements and a historic performance in the midterms, he has the wind at his back.

He has solidified his authority and no serious challenger looms. Incumbent presidents don’t lose primaries. Biden will be the Democrats’ candidate, and Kamala Harris will be his running mate.

Raucous caucus

As Nancy Pelosi exits stage left, we’re about to learn just how skilful she was. Wielding a narrow four-vote majority in the House of Representatives, she corralled her caucus to shepherd major initiatives through Congress. Kevin McCarthy, her putative successor, remains unsure whether he can get himself elected speaker.

If he does fall over the line, McCarthy will preside in name only, hostage to internal political anarchists pushing a radical agenda. Republicans plan a barrage of sham investigations to batter their opponents, following the Benghazi blueprint they deployed to sully Hillary Clinton. They will pander to their MAGA minions with culture war bills doomed to die in the Senate. They will play chicken with the US economy to demand budget cuts without regard to consequences.

Inevitably McCarthy will lose control of his majority and be forced to cut deals with Democrats to keep the government running. This will further weaken his hand. As his predecessors John Boehner and Paul Ryan found to their despair, McCarthy’s speakership will prove a poisoned chalice.

Abortion trials

Six months after the fall of Roe abortion is outlawed in a quarter of US states, with several more states seeking to curtail or ban the procedure. Yet abortions continue, because of course they do. Reproductive healthcare is essential for women’s well-being. So the anti-choice zealots will raise the stakes by prosecuting patients and practitioners of abortions, as well as relatives and friends who helped secure them.

These show trials will horrify American women, as they should. Republicans have learnt nothing from their Dobbs v Jackson debacle. Instead, they continue to double down on their Christo-fascist crusade. Abortion will linger as a white-hot issue motivating voters until Congress or a renovated Supreme Court intervenes.

Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has become central to US foreign policy. The Biden administration has framed the conflict as vital to the future of European security and the continued stability of the global rules-based order. If Russia were to prevail, decades of diplomacy would be shredded as the world reverted to a more dangerous and volatile international system, with brute force the final arbiter to resolve disputes.

Nations around the world know this, which is why 141 countries condemned Russia’s attack in the United Nations general assembly. Many have rallied behind US diplomatic leadership to sustain Ukraine and isolate Putin’s regime.

Notwithstanding carping from Putin’s patsies in certain corners of the QAnon cabal, US support for Ukraine remains firmly bipartisan. Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s surprise visit to Washington this week for talks with Biden and address a joint session of Congress underscores America’s commitment.

Biden has pledged to “stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes”. Weapons, intelligence, training and other essential aid will continue to flow. The Ukrainians will fight on. They have sacrificed too much to yield now. For them, this is an existential struggle. Win or die.

Russia is slowly deteriorating, both on the battlefield and the home front. At some point, managed withdrawal will seem the least-worst option. In the meantime the war will grind on, with needless death and destruction the legacy of Putin’s delusions.

The unexpected

China has abandoned COVID-zero, opening the door to mass casualties and severe social and economic disruption. This could trigger domestic unrest and snag global supply chains once again. The Federal Reserve risks overshooting on interest rates in its quest to curb inflation. Monetary policy is a blunt instrument to tackle a multifactor dilemma.

These are some of the known unknowns. Unknown unknowns ranging from technology breaches, market manipulations, corporate collapses, labour disputes, climate chaos, commodity shocks and more will make 2023 a year of upheaval.

Strap in. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.