NSW Labor Leader Chris Minns (Image: AAP/Paul Braven)

The NSW government and Labor opposition have been urged to make grander election commitments on housing as three of the state’s most marginal seats descend into housing stress.

On Monday, the UNSW City Futures Research Centre released data revealing that some 18,600 households in south-western Sydney — just under 13% — are experiencing some sort of housing stress, including soaring rents, overcrowding and homelessness. 

Among the electorates suffering the toughest housing conditions are three of the most marginal seats in NSW. 

Housing stress is when a household is spending more than 30% of its income on housing, whether rent or mortgages, and extends to overcrowding and homelessness.

In Kogarah, where Labor Leader Chris Minns holds his seat by a paper-thin margin of 0.1%, or as few as 60 votes, 9.5% of all households reported to have unmet housing needs, accounting for about 3400 families and individuals. 

Leppington, another seat held by Labor on a slim margin of 1.5%, has more than 2200 households with unmet housing needs.

In the Labor seat of Strathfield, held on a margin of 5.2%, more than 10% of households are in stress, and this only worsens in the party’s strongholds. In the safe Labor seats of Fairfield and Bankstown as many as 5400 and 4800 households are suffering housing stress respectively. 

Mark Degotardi, chief executive of the Community Housing Industry Association NSW, said the data should be wake-up calls to both of the major parties. He said they have offered “nothing substantial or significant” to curb the crisis.

“We’ve had some useful proposed changes to rental laws, and some first-home buyer [incentives], but frankly this is all stuff around the margins when you’re facing a crisis of this scale,” Degotardi told Crikey.

In June, the NSW social housing waitlist swelled to 51,031 approved and waiting for a property to become available for as long as 10 years, advocates say, up from 49,928 the year before. 

Voters in Coalition-held seats haven’t been safe from the crisis, either. In the electorate of Penrith, which Liberal Stuart Ayres holds on a margin of 0.6%, as many as 2700 households are experiencing housing stress, and residents in the nearby Coalition seat of Parramatta, held by a margin of 6.5%, is home to 4800 residents in housing stress.

But the issue has been relegated to the periphery by Premier Dominic Perrottet and Treasurer Matt Kean. 

In the last state budget, the Coalition committed $37 million to delivering 120 new social housing properties, $300 million on maintenance and upgrades to existing stock, and $149.8 million for 200 new and 260 upgraded homes for First Nations peoples. 

Another $500 million was earmarked for housing infrastructure, planning and rezoning efforts aimed at delivering new homes, but without promises they would do anything to improve affordability for renters. 

Beyond its budget commitments, though, the Coalition government has remained tight-lipped on what, if any, housing policies it will take to the election.

NSW Labor, meanwhile, has issued a “portable bonds” pitch to renters who could be able to bypass stumping up thousands of dollars for a bond when moving home, and instead transfer their existing bond. 

The party has also pledged to review lease-ending laws in consultation with “stakeholder and advocacy groups” to develop a list of reasonable grounds for an owner to end a tenancy agreement, “including minimum notice” requirements. 

So far, only the NSW Greens have a housing plan that targets social and affordable housing, although details related to budgetary commitments and scope have yet to be released. 

As is the case across Australia, advocates say the incoming NSW government needs a bolder long-term strategy to bolster housing supply, as low vacancy rates and the conclusion of the national rental affordability scheme (NRAS) turn the screw on an “already acute” shortage of social and affordable housing.

More than 600 households will come off the scheme this year, before it is completely wound up in 2026. 

Shelter NSW chief executive John Engler told Crikey the shortage of supply and shovel-ready projects should lead major parties to consider buying ill-fated private developments, “like Mascot Towers”, and repurpose them for social housing, in combination with longer-term ambitions. 

He said the government’s refusal to do so was symbolic of the absence of “cleverness” in its short- or long-term approach to the housing crisis.

Degotardi said the federal government’s Housing Australia Future Fund, which is set to spend $10 billion on 30,000 new social and affordable homes in the its first five years, offers NSW an opportunity to ramp up a coordinated effort. 

“But we’ve just not heard anything from either party about how they’re going to make the most of that federal government investment,” he said. 

“Community housing providers are ready to go; $3 billion over the next four years isn’t going to make [all these crisis indicators] go to zero, it’s not going to solve or remove the housing waitlist by any means, but it is a reasonable start.”

In the long term, Degotardi said, the community housing sector would welcome more investment. He said the government would do well to consider its track record on playing a role in large-scale affordable housing schemes like the NRAS and maximising government investment.