Former PM John Howard
Former PM John Howard (Image: abc.net.au)

In the fallout of a decisive NSW election result, Liberal Party figures have begun sorting through the entrails of a campaign that finished with voters kicking the Coalition out of office after 12 years in power. 

It took only four hours from polls closing for former NSW premier Dominic Perrottet to deliver a concession speech, congratulating NSW Labor and Premier-elect Chris Minns on their win.

The Coalition had 48 seats going into Saturday. But with a 6.8% primary swing against it and with half of the vote counted so far, the partner parties have won 25 seats and are projected to pick up just a handful more. It’s the worst result for the Coalition since the 1995 NSW election, but Liberals who have spoken to Crikey agree it’s not as bad as it could have been.

Two sources, including one senior Liberal, mentioned separately that Saturday’s loss was nothing like the one Labor suffered 12 years ago. “This is not like 2011,” the senior Liberal said. “Back then we beat them completely, and won seats we never had before.”

The 2011 election saw the Coalition pick up 69 seats to Labor’s 20 — only 47 is needed for a majority. Labor has won 45 seats at the time of publication, but it’s expected it will scrape in with enough seats to form a majority government.

One Liberal who spoke to Crikey said what they called Labor’s “scare campaign on privatisation” seemed to have been one of the best tactics against them.

Minn’s victory speech comments that his government would “never” sell Sydney Water or power network operator Essential Energy were the final flex in a bruising attack against the government that saw Perrottet rule out selling public assets.

All the sources were pleased with Perrottet’s performance and reckoned he couldn’t have done much more to win it. One said it was difficult to argue against an electorate’s yearning for something new after 12 years.

“It’s hard to beat the want for change,” the senior Liberal said.

Former prime minister and Liberal Party patriarch John Howard agreed, calling it a “conventional change of government” defeat. His advice for the party was to not overreact to its temporary extinguishment from power in mainland Australia. 

“It’s an easy line to say ‘woe is us’ because we have got coast-to-coast Labor governments. But in the nature of things, I think in my time as prime minister, they were largely Labor state governments,” he told The Australian.

“It didn’t make an enormous amount of practical difference. The states always want more money. But I think it can be overdone. It happens very rarely and it doesn’t last long.”