Dutton demands more immigration, less immigration. In one breath

The numbers in the migration program aren’t going down — they’re actually going up … How does Jim Chalmers look the Australian public in the eye and tell them a story about migration which is not true? The pressure that they’re putting onto housing is going to make it less affordable for families to get a home.

The government had the opportunity under the migration program review to allow more tradies to come in … So the government in a single decision is going to make it harder to find a tradie and more expensive to find a tradie.

Peter Dutton, within a single minute, December 12, 2023

One of the few positives of being in opposition is that you don’t have to be consistent and you can say whatever you like because you’re not in power. So there’s no need to align your actions and your words.

Normally, however, opposition leaders do not take advantage of that relatively low bar to literally say things that are the exact opposite of each other. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton not only managed that yesterday, he said them in sequence, one after the other, more or less in the same breath. The government hasn’t cut immigration hard enough, he says. But it has cut immigration too hard because it’s not letting enough tradies in.

A malicious right-wing newspaper might be tempted to write this up as “Opposition leader wants to flood Australia with foreign tradies”, warning that our homes would be overrun by foreigners with who knows what qualifications driving down the wages of hard-working dinki-di Aussie tradies.

If it was Labor in opposition, that is.

Dutton was merely demonstrating the flexibility that being out of power gives one, of course. It’s not the first time the Coalition has demanded less immigration and more immigration. His immigration spokesman Dan Tehan has constantly railed at Labor’s secret agenda for a “big Australia” — “Labor’s big Australia could see 1.87 million people arrive in the country over five years as Australians continue to struggle with the cost of living and the rental crisis,” he warned recently — but Tehan has a soft spot for backpackers who he wants to flood the country with to benefit farmers and horticultural producers.

Dutton can declare the Liberals have turned their backs on big business, thereby freeing them from having to stick rigidly to the neoliberal policies demanded by the top end of town, but there are some political constituencies the Coalition will never abandon. That leaves him wanting to look after the Coalition’s political mates in the agricultural and construction sectors, while railing against migration — you have to complain about too many migrants and not enough migrants of your preferred kind at the same time.

“What has migration ever done for us,” Dutton thus wonders, John Cleese-style. “Well, except for the tradies … Need the tradies,” pipes up someone. “And the backpackers — can’t do without the backpackers.”

And how about aged care? The Coalition’s traditional means of avoiding funding increases in remuneration for aged care workers has been to tell the industry to import more from overseas — in fact, before the last election the then-government attacked Labor for relying on migration to provide healthcare staff while admitting it would be importing more aged care workers itself.

Construction. Agriculture. Aged care. Pretty soon you’re talking real migration numbers, all with the goal of keeping wages down for employers.

Migration is complex. It spurs inflation by increasing demand but reduces inflation by reducing employment market pressure. It inspires innovation by bringing new talent to Australia but undermines productivity by reducing the incentive for businesses to invest in automation. It increases revenue for governments but requires more spending on infrastructure. It’s nuanced, and as the Productivity Commission once noted, ensuring the costs and benefits are properly distributed to deliver an overall benefit means having the right distributional policies in place more broadly.

Dutton doesn’t do complexity. Like Tony Abbott, he’s not one for nuance. For Dutton, it’s either zero or one, no in-between. Or, as is the case on immigration, he’s zero and one.