Avoid mozzies, bats and camels: scientists predict Australia’s next viral outbreak

There are five viral families Australia needs to prepare for as the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) warns the world could face two pandemic threats a year. 

The latest report, Strengthening Australia’s Pandemic Preparedness, released today canvasses what more the Australian government and scientific community must do as climate change, environmental destruction and globalisation fuel the emergence of new infectious diseases. 

The Indo-Pacific is a hotspot for disease, the report’s authors warned yesterday, urging Australia to increase its virus and host knowledge around viral families Coronaviridae, Flaviviridae, Orthomyxoviridae, Paramyxoviridae and Togaviridae. 

The Paramyxoviridae family is perhaps the most alarming: unique to Asia and Australia, it has high mortality rates and is easily spread through aerosols and contaminated surfaces. It’s behind the Hendra virus, which initially travelled from fruit bats to horses to humans, spreading across Queensland. While there’s a Hendra vaccine for horses, there’s no vaccine or specific medical treatment for infected humans. 

Togaviridae is the family behind some encephalitis viruses, which cause inflammation of the brain. These viruses are spread by insects, are seasonal, and are behind Ross River fever — the most common insect-borne viral disease in Australia. 

Dengue fever, Japanese encephalitis and Zika are all part of the Flaviridiae family and can be transmitted by domesticated animals. Many of those infected are asymptomatic. 

Finally, COVID-19 and influenza families made the list. Coronaviridae causes COVID-19, SARS and MERS, with diseases potentially spreading through Australia’s bats and wild camels. Australia has one of the largest populations of wild camels in the world and there are hundreds of coronaviruses circulating among animals. Thankfully they don’t frequently make the jump to humans.

Influenza is part of the Orthomyxoviridae family, which is highly infectious and mutates quickly, causing epidemics and pandemics in humans. 

Viral outbreaks have been more frequent and severe over the past 100 years, the report said, requiring nationally coordinated investments in science and technology to limit the health and economic impacts of infectious diseases. The report made 20 recommendations to bolster Australia’s response. 

Along with researching the five viral families listed, Australia should also improve and diversify onshore vaccine manufacturing, develop readily available commercial antivirals and improve virus diagnostics. Our national coordination is subpar, the report finds, and it calls for a national genomic analysis authority to improve data collection and sharing.