The Aboriginal flag seen in Canberra, 2022 (Image: AAP/Lukas Coch)
(Image: AAP/Lukas Coch)

Earlier this week, Australians were polled on their view on a Indigenous Voice to Parliament.

The poll — the first since draft wording on the proposal was presented to Indigenous leaders in July at the Garma festival — was conducted by research company Resolve Strategic on behalf of the Nine newspapers and showed a decent majority of 64% in favour.

If this pans out, it would be enough to achieve the double majority — a majority of votes in the majority of states and a majority nationwide in favour of a constitutional amendment — required for a referendum to pass.

Of course, there’s a long way to go, and lingering questions on the details (or so everyone who could just explain what the proposal contains keeps telling us … ). But does this give us an indication of the public support the proposal could expect when put to a referendum?

The decade or so leading up to the plebiscite on marriage equality in 2017 had seen a steady increase in public support for the change. In July 2017, 63% of respondents to an Essential poll said they believed same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, 25% said they should not be allowed to marry, and 12% did not know. This skewed reasonably close to the final outcome in November that year: 61.6% yes, 38.4% no.

But things don’t always follow the polling that directly — the final Newspoll on whether Australia should become a republic in the lead-up to the 1999 referendum gave the yes vote a minor lead of 51%. It failed to achieve a majority in any state or territory except, of course, the leftie nerds of the ACT.

The Voice proposal faces similar arguments to many of those put forward by opponents to change back then — that the change is the preserve of out-of-touch “elites” who are hopelessly divided on what the change ought to achieve. Advocates for the Voice will be hoping it’s not quite so effective this time.

Will a referendum on a Voice to Parliament pass and show up the naysayers? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.