How the historic charges against Trump could affect the 2024 campaign

Donald Trump has become the first former US president to be criminally charged. 

The charges — over illegal alleged hush payments to a porn actress and a model in 2016 — appear certain to shake up the 2024 presidential campaign. 

But just in what way remains to be seen — some experts believe the indictment could be a boon for Trump in the internal contest for the Republican nomination, while hurting him in the general election. 

The charges, while historic, might also be the least of Trump’s legal troubles. He’s still facing at least three other criminal investigations into his conduct in office. 

“This is probably the first of several indictments, and I think it’s the least serious of them,” Charles Darwin University dean of law and Bill Clinton campaign adviser Alan Berman told Crikey. 

Trump said in a statement he was “completely innocent”.

“This is political persecution and election interference at the highest level in history,” he said.

The exact nature of the charges has not been made official, but the Associated Press reported the Manhattan district attorney’s office, and a team of defence lawyers, had both confirmed that charges had been laid.

Trump has previously vowed to remain in the 2024 presidential campaign even if he’s charged.

His early statements on the charges show the Republican ex-president is likely to seek to use the criminal matter as a way to rally his supporters and boost his campaign. 

“He’s already called his supporters to protest, calling it a political persecution,” Berman said. 

“There’s speculation it will help Trump with the Republican base and mean a greater likelihood of him getting the nomination, but it will probably hurt him in the general election.

“I think a lot of Americans are just tired of the drama.” 

The alleged hush money payments were made in 2016 to porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal.

Daniels, real name Stephanie Clifford, received US$130,000 to keep quiet about what she says was a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006.

McDougal was paid US$150,000 for the rights to her story about a 10-month affair with Trump that she says occurred in the mid-2000s.

Trump’s former “fixer” Michael Cohen arranged the payments to both women, including having the publisher of tabloid National Enquirer pay McDougal for the rights to her story.

Defence lawyers Susan Necheles and Joseph Tacopina told the AP that Trump “did not commit any crime” and that they would “vigorously fight this political prosecution in court”.

The other investigations Trump faces include one in Washington looking into Trump’s alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

Another probe, in Georgia, is investigating whether Trump and his allies interfered in that state’s 2020 election.

There is also an investigation into a trove of top-secret documents located at Trump’s Florida home.

Professor of law and political science at Arizona State University Stefanie A Lindquist wrote in The Conversation that there was nothing in the US constitution that would prohibit someone from being president just because they’ve been criminally charged or convicted. 

Lindquist even postulated that a president could theoretically serve from jail.

Berman said Trump would not be able to be pardoned for the Manhattan matter, because the charges were brought at a state level. 

Immediately after the charges were revealed, Clinton began to trend on Twitter, thanks to users comparing the charges against Trump with payments made by Clinton in the 1990s. 

Legal experts say the key difference is that the Clinton payment was public, legal and made to settle a civil lawsuit, according to the AP.