The Reserve Bank governor yesterday presented an elegant exposition of the fine art of forecasting, and gave the usual Delphic hints about setting interest rates. This is the slowdown we had to have, but it would be nice if the government got on with IR reform.

As Ian Macfarlane said, if one has only one set of data to look at one would start with the rest of the world. Overnight US inflation was benign, which is great news for the rest of us. Equities rose, but so did bond yields, another slight reduction in Greenspan’s “conundrum.”

Also, global growth is “still at the early stage of expansion” – providing plenty of opportunity for exporters.

Read more on the Henry Thornton website here.