Peter Dutton’s Game of Thrones moment as rivals gather to take out Sussan Ley

The preselection challenge against Deputy Liberal Leader Sussan Ley in her NSW seat of Farrer presents Opposition Leader Peter Dutton with a delicate conundrum: does he intervene to save her, or does he take advantage of the situation and allow a powerful factional rival to be taken out? 

Ley says she has Dutton’s support, and Crikey understands she is right about that. It appears most Liberals are happy with the deal hammered out after the election that put the conservative Queenslander Dutton in the opposition leader’s job; Ley, a centre-right-winger from NSW, as his deputy; and Simon Birmingham, a moderate South Australian, as Senate leader. The set-up ensures a certain factional and geographical balance. 

But the challenge in Farrer throws uncertainty into the mix, and some Liberals who’ve spoken to Crikey see both opportunities and risks for Dutton.

Should the challenge by conservative ex-NSW Liberal executive member and schoolteacher Jean Haynes be successful — and it appears she has gathered impressive numbers among local Liberals voting in the preselection — Dutton could go down the same route as former PM Scott Morrison did and intervene to save Ley. 

Morrison faced criticism that his intervention to stop rank-and-file Liberal members from voting out Ley in 2022 was undemocratic, but he defended the move as protecting his female team members from factional shenanigans. 

Dutton could do the same, a move that Liberals hope would earn him credit among the public. Many in the party are acutely aware there’s a perception the Liberals have a “woman problem”, and agree it wouldn’t look good if its most senior woman was allowed to be taken out. 

On the other hand, allowing party members to vote Ley out could allow Dutton to effectively eliminate a factional rival under the cover of a party-democratic process. Ley is closely allied with Alex Hawke, who is seen as the leader of the centre-right faction, and he, too, is facing a credible preselection challenge in his NSW electorate of Mitchell. Their faction is seen as somewhat rudderless after Morrison lost last year’s federal election.

Some other Liberals Crikey spoke to said the Farrer situation has little to do with Dutton and wider party politics, and everything to do with internal rivalries in the NSW division. News Corp’s Samantha Maiden has chronicled the intense and complicated factors at play in Farrer, including allegations a “nun from a silent order” was signed up to vote in a local Liberal branch, and claims a party powerbroker had been “hiding in a forest in a ski mask”. 

One Liberal insider described the preselection situation, with the political consequences that would cascade from each possibility, as a “Game of Thrones” moment for the party.

Dutton, who Crikey understands is a Game of Thrones fan for the show’s depiction of politics, will surely weigh his options carefully. 

In the HBO fantasy drama series, political decisions often led to actual beheadings — or worse. In Australian politics, fortunately, the worst that could happen is that some people will have to look for new jobs.