Arthur Sinodinos: likely front-runner. Currently a senior exec at NAB. If he runs, he will win the preselection. The only concern would be his closeness to Howard and how that would play out in the areas of Kings Cross, Darlinghurst and Potts Point.

Anthony Orkin: A former Turnbull staffer. Was working with mineral exploration company Volcan, now working with an NGO. Would be a good chance: he has support amongst a lot of local branches as a result of working with Malcolm, and his Jewish background will help.

Richard Shields: current Deputy Director of the Liberal Party in NSW, former staffer to Helen Coonan. Likely to lack support due to his oversight of the Alex Hawke/Nick Campbell campaign against the David Clarke grouping, ensuring neither the Left nor the Right will back him.

Mary Lou Jarvis: former staffer to Malcolm and successful PR consultant. Interestingly, the Party has just awarded her firm Ad Partners the contract of the 2011 state campaign (Jarvis has also been mentioned in relation to the state seat of Vaucluse, potentially raising conflict of interest issues). Very little chance of winning as she lacks a support base.

Peter Doyle: may turn his eyes on the bigger prize now that Malcolm is leaving. Besides some links to the corporate sector he doesn’t bring much to the table. He won’t start with any support, so will struggle.

Julian Leeser: head of the Menzies Research Centre and one of the Bradfield discards. Doubt he will throw his hat in the ring but his name is being mentioned. He’s likely to struggle, although his Jewish links would help.

Gabrielle Upton: has by far the strongest CV of the candidates — she is currently Deputy Chancellor of UNSW and counsel for the AICD. Upton is supported by the Left and is said to have assiduously stacked her branch, which currently numbers 245. If she elects to go for Wentworth rather than Vaucluse, she has a very good chance of winning. Her previous links with the Labor Party won’t help her but they never did the incumbent much harm.

Anthony Boskovitz: Local Liberal councilor in Woollahra and law student, also mentioned in relation to Vaucluse. He’s young (28) and very ambitious. Connected to the Right but unlikely to find support there.

Keri Huxley: former Mayor of Woollahra who left local politics in 2008. Not much chance of winning — lacks support of both the Left and the Right.

John O’Sullivan: current president of the Wentworth FEC and Chairman of Credit Suisse Investment Bank. A strong Turnbull backer who had extensive dealings with Godwin Grech. Doubt he will run but would be well supported — he’s very popular amongst rank and file.

Shayne Mallard: current Sydney City Councillor. Advantage would be that he holds on to votes in the Cross. He’ll have support amongst the left, and would rate as a good chance if he nominates.

Jason Falinski: Currently a Warringah councillor. He was the President of the Point Piper branch when Turnbull stacked it in 2004. A republican, close to John Brogden and a dedicated foe of party conservatives, but is no longer aligned with the Left faction. A darkhorse.