Grecian wobbles. More tremors around Greece with its sovereign debt premium over German bonds rising above 4.5% at one stage overnight. But while European markets went into a spin, the US markets rose because someone sprinkled Easter eggs over retail sales at many of the country’s major retailers and same store sales rose “strongly”. The executive overseeing Greece’s affairs at credit rating group, Fitch, told Reuters: “It is now up to the Greek government to go publicly to the EU and IMF and ask for the cash and the support; the matter cannot be long delayed.” But for the finance industry bible, the Financial Times, the story wasn’t as big as it seemed. By this morning the paper’s various websites had a yarn about Apple taking on Google in the mobile ad market as its top story. So much for Greece shaking the markets!
Back to their old tricks #1: American investors are back to their old economic myopia, concentrating on the ephemeral and ignoring reality. Take overnight. As expected, same store retail sales for March were strong, not as good as the 10% forecast, but then an average of about 9% growth is nothing to be sneezed at. But the rise was from March 2009, when some store sales fell 4.8%. The figures also included the run up to Easter and pent up demand from the winter storms of February (yes, the snow again). Most chains had solid rises and there were few disappointments. But giant Wal-Mart is not included. US shares ended higher over the day, not as high as they were midway through, but in “the green”. US 10-year bonds kicked up to 3.9%, but that was more a gut reaction. Greece’s wobbles didn’t see any flight to quality.
Old tricks #2: At the same time the problems in the US housing sector, already starting to worry the Fed with signs of another dip, were underlined by a sharp rise in US mortgage rates, which hit an eight-month high last week. That was as the Fed’s support for the sector with purchases of $US1.25 billion of mortgage-backed securities, ended. Rates on 30-year home loans, the most popular variety, hit 5.21% for the week to Thursday, April 1, up from 5.08% the week before. There was a 0.2% rise in applications for new loans, but refinancings (which have been a major part of new loans), fell sharply. In a video on the CNNmoney website, US banking analyst Meredith Whitney (she blew the whistle on Citibank’s 2007 implosion) warned the housing sector is about to fall again. Markets are waiting to see who is refinancing the mortgage securities being created by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now the Fed is no longer the only buyer.
Old tricks #3: And no wonder there’s more gloom about housing. Sales of foreclosed or other “distressed” houses are approaching the highs of the housing crisis a year ago, according to figures from First American CoreLogic. Distressed sales accounted for 29% of all sales in January, the highest since April 2009 and just under the 32% peak in January 2009. Distressed transactions push down on real estate prices because the deals are done below market. They also add to the stock of unsold houses, adding further pressure to prices. US house sales, house starts and sales for March and April should be higher because of the ending of the tax at the end of the month. Then it’s on its own.
Old tricks #4: Of course investors ignored a surprise 18,000 rise in the number of weekly jobless benefits to 460,000. They did like a fall in long-term benefit holders of 131,000 to 4.55 million. Economists had been expecting the weekly figure to fall after the 162,000 jobs created in March. It’s the old story in the US markets, ignore the negative and massage the positive. It’s been going for the best part of year, and before that, helped drive everything over the slope in the credit crunch, then recession. Jobs and housing remain the black holes in the US, as Fed chairman Ben Bernanke reminded everyone in a speech on Wednesday (but now forgotten).
An Irish growth industry: There has been a sharp jump in bankruptcies in Ireland. Figures out this week show a 34% rise in the number of corporate liquidations, receiverships or examinerships in the first three months of the year when compared with the same period last year. Four hundred and sixty nine companies were placed in liquidation, receivership or examinership in the period compared to 351 in the first quarter of 2009. That’s also up from the 435 failures in the December quarter . Construction and property, where the collapse has been deepest, accounted for a good portion of the problems: 177 of all failures. That’s equal to the total number of failures in the sector in 2008 and 2009. Retailing was another sector hit with just over 50 failures recorded.
Murdoch watch: More change at News Corp with the man said to be Rupe’s digital merges and acquisition guru, Australian Jeremy Philips, on the way to new pastures. US media reports say Philips has a new job lined up and that he told Rupe a couple of months ago of his intention to leave. PaidContent reported the move. In a statement attributed to Murdoch, Rupe said: “Jeremy is a very talented executive and I value his strategic contributions to our digital initiatives over the past six years. I fully understand his desire to focus on new entrepreneurial ventures and I wish him all the best in this next step in what will continue to be an exceptional career.” Phillips previously worked at PBL with Daniel Petrie and were going to be the digital/internet gurus for the Packer family. He has worked at News Corp since 2006. Phillips is moving back to Australia. Don’t mention MySpace, anyone!
Oh what a hybrid! Hybrids such as the Toyota Prius might not be “hot” in Australia (diesels are cooler, taking 20% of the car market last month), but in Japan, it’s the biggest seller. Figures from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association this week showed Toyota’s Prius hybrid was Japan’s top-selling car in March, as it was in the Japanese financial year that ended on March 31. Despite all of Toyota’s poor publicity about faults and dud cars around the world (and including the Prius) , the company sold 35,546 versions of the car last month, making it the 11th consecutive month Prius has topped the best-seller list in Japan. In the 12 months to March 31, sales quadrupled to 277,485 units.
Japan: Japan’s current account surplus jumped by almost 30% to $US15.8 billion in February compared to the same month in 2009 (which saw a huge fall). And in a second report, Japan’s cabinet office reported that the total value of machinery orders fell 0.4% in February, seasonally adjusted, compared to January. But the big surprise was for more important private-sector machinery order (which exclude volatile ones for ships and electric power) fell a nasty 5.4% in February. It was a second monthly fall and a sign the rise in exports (as evidenced by the rise in the current account surplus), hasn’t produced a rise in spending on new plant and equipment. That’s a sign that business investment remains weak, which is not a good sign in Japan where business is becoming more confident, but really can’t see any returns from reinvesting in new plant and equipment, other than to keep businesses ticking over.
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