As days move on after the catastrophic death of  Polish President Lech Kaczynski, discussion moves to the cause of the disaster. Evidence is being uncovered further discounting mechanical failure and pointing to pilot error. The special significance of the 70th anniversary of the Katyn massacre and a patriotic President can provide clues to the cause.

I was on board the ill-fated aircraft last year. It was spacious and comfortable, but a tour of the cockpit indicated a serious problem. The aircraft was from a past generation; there appeared to be no computerised aids to flight, while the pilot noted that it was “a fun plane to fly”. The lack of automation meant that a landing in poor conditions substantially increased the risk of catastrophe. Polish investigators agree that there were no conditions for landing. The pilots were the cream of the Polish Air Force. On that fateful morning the recurring question is “why did the crew decide to land and not divert?”

The anniversary of the Katyn massacre is a significant event for Polish people. It also carries with it decades of enmity between Poland and Russia. The recent developments and Vladamir Putin’s decision to attend the ceremony were controversial in Russia. President Kaczynski was well known to be publicly wary of Russia’s attitude to Poland. He was instrumental in pushing for investigations to uncover alleged Communist collaborators. In a similar situation to the McCarthyism of the 1950s, several public figures were forced to resign including Stanislaw Wielgus, the Archbishop of Warsaw.

Poland’s relationship with its eastern near neighbour would most likely have been in the thoughts of the President as the Tupolev aircraft flew over Russia waiting for weather conditions to improve. As the plane was circling the airfield, it would be standard procedure for the pilots to consult the President. There was significant pressure for the delegation to land. If the plane was diverted to Moscow or Minsk as the control tower suggested, there was a real risk they would miss or delay the important commemoration ceremony.

Until the investigation is concluded we are only able to conjecture. Rumour continues to circulate in Poland that the request from the Russian air-traffic-control to divert might have been misinterpreted by the President as Kremlin meddling. Coupled with the importance of the Katyn anniversary this year, significant pressure may have been brought to bear by the President to land at Smolensk.

There is a history of such risky decisions being made before. Polish political insiders inform me that the late President was notorious for being impatient and stubborn on occasion. In 2008, Kaczynski requested that the Presidential plane to land in Tbilisi, which was a combat zone during the Russians invasion. The pilots refused and diverted to Azerbaijan.  Kaczynski reportedly lashed out at the pilots for their decision. A former political associate of mine recounted how the former President once berated his staff after a technical delay in China.

Ultimately, the pilots had the final call to land. They decided to ignore repeated calls to divert. It may turn out that the same patriotic drive that helped Lech Kaczynski so valiantly work with Solidarity to regain Polish freedom also led to such a tragic ending for Poland.