Each set of polling results seems to confirm the trend: female voters like Julia Gillard and don’t like Tony Abbott

Essential Research’s poll taken last week and over the weekend is another instalment in the steadily-building evidence that there’s a substantial gender gap in Australian politics at the moment.

The most flagrant example is on the Preferred Prime Minister question. Julia Gillard holds a big lead over Tony Abbott as preferred PM — a similar lead to that found by Newspoll. But Gillard’s lead among female voters is twice that among male voters.   Men prefer Gillard over Abbott by 15 points, 47-32%, but among women it’s 53-23%.

Labor is also benefiting from a sustained rise in its support among female voters.  It’s in the raw numbers, which means conclusions must be tentative, because those numbers are volatile, but Labor has enjoyed a strong lead among female voters on the primary vote since mid-June — before, please note, Gillard overthrew Rudd.  But that lead has remained intact while Labor’s lead among male voters has come and gone. This week, the gap between the parties among women is now bigger than the similar gap among male voters has ever been — Labor leads in the primary vote among women by 6%, among men it trails the Coalition by 3%.

Remember, these are volatile numbers, so must always be used with caution.

But they’re backed up by the numbers on leader approval. Gillard has approval numbers of 54-25%  among women, but only 50-36% among men.  Abbott’s -9 net approval rating — 35-46% among women — compares to his slight net approval rating with men — 45-43%.

The gender gap is also there on issues voters identify as important in their decision to vote.  44% of men identified the economy as the most important issue for them in their decision to vote, compared to 33% of women.  20% of women identified health (famously a “female” and “elderly” voting issue) as their most important issue, compared to 12% of men.

Essential this week also asked about Gillard’s attempts to align herself with Australian values through a series of speeches since she became Prime Minister.  They asked

The Prime Minister Julia Gillard recently said that hard work and education, regarding everyone as equal, showing respect and plain speaking are Australian values. Do you agree or disagree that this is a good definition of Australian values?

79% of voters agreed with this definition as a description of Australian values, and the result was fairly uniform across demographics, but particularly found support among older voters.

But asked whether the values described Gillard, Abbott or Bob Brown, voters were much more inclined to favour Gillard. 65% of voters agreed the values described Gillard, and only 17% didn’t.  Voters were evenly split on Abbott — 39% thought those values described him; the same number thought they didn’t. Brown fared better — 34% thought those values described him, 29% disagreed.

It’s possible this “values” question worked as a proxy for preferred PM, or approval ratings, rather than tapping into voters’ real thinking about Australian values and whether they feel leaders encapsulate them.  However, the strong showing of Brown on the question suggests this is more than just about party affiliation and perceptions of leadership. For example, more than a quarter of Liberal voters believed the values described Brown.

And again, the gender gap appears in the raw numbers.  Gillard’s “values” numbers among women are 68-13%; among men 62-24%.  Abbott’s numbers are 34-41% among women and actually net positive, 43-39%, among men.

In short, men like Gillard and Abbott, although they prefer the former. Women like Gillard more than men do, and really dislike Abbott. But voters’ perception that Julia Gillard best encompasses mainstream values suggests her strong emphasis on values since becoming Prime Minister has had some sort of impact in the wider electorate.