Why inflation sucks in France

Inflation, f-llation, who gives a … To the advice “don’t speak with your mouth full” we can add another rule for politicians: don’t speak too quickly.

Former French Justice Minister Rachida Dati

When you are in too much of a hurry to get the words out, things can go wrong as the former French Justice Minister Rachida Dati found to the amusement of many watchers of political television interviews this week. While mouthing off at a rapid rate about the perils of rising prices, she substituted “fell-tion” for “inflation” which my handy little Google translator treats as follows:

London’s Daily Telegraph reminds us that Ms Date was dropped from the French government last year “after her penchant for designer dresses and appearing on the covers of celebrity magazines prompted criticism that a senior minister should not engage in such frivolity.” She is now a member of the European Parliament and gained her latest 17 seconds of fame while launching an attack on foreign investment funds during an interview on Canal Plus.

A translation?

“When I see some of them looking for returns of 20 or 25 per cent, at a time when fell-tio is close to zero, and in particular in a slump, that means we are destroying businesses.”

A real clown for a parliament. A Brazilian clown known as Tiririca — which means “Grumpy” in colloquial Portuguese — is favoured to win a seat in the Brazilian Parliament in this Sunday’s elections. Tiririca, whose real name is Francisco Everardo Oliveira Silva, is predicted by the pollsters to gain a million votes after campaigning on slogans including “It can’t get any worse” and “What does a federal deputy do? Truly, I don’t know. But vote for me and I will find out for you.”

Appearances by the clown on You Tube have been the advertising successes of the Brazilian election campaign.

The only impediment to victory appears to be a constitutional requirement that deputies be able to read and write with a judge in Sao Paulo demanding he demonstrate that he meets the literacy requirement for elected office after newspapers reported that, like one-in-10 Brazilians, he is illiterate.

Recession over but US economy heading down again. Forget about inflation. Start worrying again about recession. The Chicago Fed didn’t exactly put it like that in commenting on its latest National Activity Index but the message was there clear enough.

In official Federal Reserve language:

Led by declines in production — and employment — related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to –0.53 in August from –0.11 in July. None of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made a positive contribution in August.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to –0.42 in August from –0.27 in July. August’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

The Chicago Fed rather prizes its ability to pick the start and end of US recessions using its National Activity Index. When the three-month moving average falls below -0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. Conversely, when the average value moves above -0.70 following a period of economic contraction, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended.

It certainly worked in picking the recession of 2008-2009 and with a current moving average down to -0.42 it is heading towards dangerous territory again.

A quote for the day about the obsession with p-edophilia. Dominic Lawson writing in The Independent — Society is Really to Blame — that a form of displacement activity is occurring, designed to avoid facing up to the real cause of so much abuse of children, which is the breakdown of family life.

The most interesting question is why, as a nation, we have become so disproportionately obsessed with p-edophilia — illustrated in its most bureaucratic form with the vetting of millions of would-be volunteers and teachers via the Criminal Records Bureau. The answer, I fear, is that it is all a form of displacement activity designed to avoid facing up to the real cause of so much abuse of children, abuse that goes on across the nation, every day. That cause is the breakdown of what we used to call “family life” and the growth of profoundly dysfunctional homes (usually state-funded) in which there are a succession of so-called “stepfathers”.

And on that subject of s-x offender registries and such-like. A view from one of my favourite cartoonists on the subject: