Florida has become one of the largest states in the US relatively recently, experiencing massive population growth in the second half of the 20th century. Like the state of Queensland, Florida’s population continues to grow as residents move from colder climates to this tropical state. The 2000 census placed Florida’s as the USA’s fourth largest state, and it is expected that this year’s census will see Florida overtake New York as the third largest state.

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Florida is a key swing state in presidential elections. The state has gone with the winning party at nearly every election in recent decades, only going against the trend in 1960 and 1992. The 2000 election hinged on Florida, delaying the election result for over a month.

This year, there are fiercely contested ballots for both Senate and Governor. In the Senate race, sitting Governor Charlie Crist is running as an independent against Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek. Crist was elected as a Republican governor in 2006, and was expected to easily win the Republican nomination for Senate when he announced that he would not run for a second term as governor. He was also seen as a preeminent favourite in the general election.

Crist had a reputation as Governor for not always following the Republican party line. On a number of issues he followed policies that damaged Republican partisan interests. As Attorney-General, he helped set up procedures to allow felons who had finished their sentence to have their voting rights restored. He also allowed extra hours of early voting at the 2008 presidential election. He proceeded to appoint a judge to the Florida Supreme Court whose political credentials were called into doubt by Republicans.

Crist finally lost the support of many Republicans when he figuratively and literally embraced President Obama, publicly supporting the federal stimulus program. Many other Republican governors publicly condemned the stimulus while eagerly taking the money for their state, but Crist was the only one to give Obama credit for the benefit his state received.

Crist’s rival for the open Senate seat (won in 2004 by Republican Mel Martinez) was former State House Speaker Marco Rubio. Rubio took the lead in primary polls in early 2010, and Crist announced plans to run as an independent in April 2010.

Democrats are running Congressman Kendrick Meek, and hoped that fighting between Crist and Rubio would split the conservative vote and allow Meek to win. Instead, Rubio has locked up most of the conservative vote, while Crist is winning votes from independents and Democrats. Meek has languished in third place in Senate polls for months. Crist fell behind Rubio months ago, and Rubio has had a clear lead in all polls for the last two months.

In the last few weeks, Meek’s numbers have fallen from the low 20s to a vote under 20%. There has been speculation about whether Meek’s Democratic voters could coalesce behind Crist and give him the numbers to defeat the more conservative Rubio. Late last week, it was reported that former President Bill Clinton had asked Meek to withdraw from the race, which Meek had refused. Crist also confirmed that, if elected, he would caucus with the Democrats.

It seems unlikely that Crist will be able to win over the Meek voters he needs to overtake Rubio. Many of those voters will have already voted, with early voting becoming very popular in this year’s election. Others will continue to vote loyally for a Democrat, finding it difficult to vote for a Governor who had been a member of the opposing party for most of his career.

Crist’s open Governor’s seat is being hotly contested by both parties. Incumbent Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D) is running against billionaire Rick Scott (R). Scott won a fierce primary battle over Attorney-General Bill McCollum, spending tens of millions of dollars of his own money to defeat a candidate who was also a solid conservative, but was suspected by tea party activists because of his strong establishment connections.

Scott’s campaign has been hurt by revelations that he had previously been an executive at a healthcare company that was hit with a record fine for Medicare fraud. Despite the general strength of the Republican party, Sink has held Scott to a dead heat in recent polls.

Floridians, like Californians, will be voting in referendums on reforming the system of redistricting electoral boundaries. Amendments 5 and 6 propose strict rules for legislators drawing boundaries for state legislature districts and congressional districts. In a mirror image of California, the proposal is supported by the minority Democrats and opposed by the majority Republicans.

A number of Democrats in the House of Representatives are also facing serious risk of defeat. Two seats in the Central Florida region are particular Republican targets. Orlando’s District 8 is held by one-term congressman Alan Grayson. Grayson has attracted national attention as one of the few endangered congressmen who has not run away from the Obama administration’s policies and record, as well as his record of producing misleading ads about his Republican opponent.

Grayson’s neighbour, Suzanne Kosmas, holds the 24th district, centred on the “Space Coast”, where the economy is based on NASA’s space programs. Kosmas is struggling to win a second term as the region faces the prospect of massive job cuts as NASA ends the Space Shuttle program in coming months.