More thinking out aloud about the NSW Liberal leadership. Even independent observers are wondering if John Brogden will take the party into the next election.

The opposition leader delivered a major speech to a fundraiser for the top end of town yesterday, announcing plans to slash public service jobs, reduce the number of government departments and cut payroll tax. Good enough policy – but good politics in opposition? Particularly so far out from the 2007 election?

NSW has a new premier who faces difficult decisions of his own in an attempt to simultaneously fix the state’s infrastructure and the budget bottom line. Some critics say Brogden lacks gravitas. Yesterday’s speech was very much campaign style, an attempt to look weighty. But did he fluff it?

Brogden has managed to alienate public servants, scare a few wobbly voters and gained … what? The small/medium business vote? He probably had it anyway – or could have got it without putting the public sector offside with his dramatics.

He got the story half right. The general public will always feel the public service is bloated and in need of a trim. It’s a decent enough tactic to play on this populist sentiment, but Brogden could have done it in a less threatening way. The general consensus is that the issue of “services” has helped Labor win all the states and the territories. State opposition leaders need to realise that the public don’t want hairy-chested, muscle-up-to-the-government behaviour from them.

Voters want people who will deal with the issues that directly affect their lives, who will talk to them and offer solutions they can relate to. They don’t want confrontationalists. Look what happened to Colin Barnett – or Iron Mark for that matter. Both tried and failed with the agro approach.

Recruitment freezes and natural attrition don’t target areas of inefficiency or incompetence. Indeed, they can often be counterproductive. The more competent people move on to bigger and better things – and the freeze prevents them being replaced.

The line about exempting frontline services mightn’t wash at the moment. Administrators – good administrators – are important. In all departments, cut or not cut. There were no pencil pushers in Queensland looking properly at Dr Patel’s paperwork, for example.

And amalgamating departments is just like stirring alphabet soup. Letters get moved around. Sure, give departments and authorities streamlined supervision – but be careful that you don’t lash disparate entities together and have a public sector with the performance of contestants in an old fashioned three-legged race when you want sprinters.