While last week the best minds in climate science were gathering in Copenhagen, the previous week the finest minds in climate scepticism gathered in New York for the 2008 Heartland Institute International Conference on Climate Change.
Heartland is a conservative US thinktank with extensive ties to tobacco companies. This year’s conference was its second effort on climate change, and attracted representatives from smaller conservative and free enterprise groups around the world, but few of the higher-profile sceptics like David Bellamy that attended its first effort. Many of the attendees came from bodies funded by fossil-fuel companies, although Heartland itself refuses to reveal its funding sources.
As usual with any gathering of climate sceptics, there were plenty of cranks and wingnuts. John Dale Dunn MD, Medical Officer, Brown County Sheriff’s Office and Physician, Fort Hood, Texas, argued that a global increase in temperature would be a good thing and not dangerous at all because old people move to warmer climates all the time. Benny Peiser, Ph.D., “Social Anthropologist” at Liverpool John Moores University, advocated a vast space-based “climate shield”. And there were plenty of speakers keen to defend the poor carbon atom from being maligned as the cause of the whole problem in the first place. Others stuck to the more traditional sceptic line that there was no warming at all.
However some speakers raised issues that any serious advocate of addressing climate change has to consider, and for which there are no easy or comfortable answers.
Former environmental lobbyist, John A. Charles, described how the city of Portland, Oregon had made a convenient error in its calculation of the city’s carbon emissions, allowing it to declare itself as having reduced its CO2-equivalent emissions and met its self-imposed Kyoto target. The example shows that, in the absence of a commonly-agreed and transparent emissions measurement methodology, carbon accounting under any international emissions agreement could be subject to the sort of rorting that goes on with non-tariff trade barriers under WTO guidelines.
Alan Moran from the Institute of Public Affairs, who presented a paper on the economic implications, noted a paper by Spanish economist Gabriel Calzada on the extraordinary cost of Spain’s subsidies for wind and solar power and the lack of permanent new jobs they had provided. 11% of Spain’s energy is generated by wind and solar (nearly all the former), but at a cost of €28.6b. The program is now shedding jobs because of the unsustainability of the subsidies.
Then there are the larger issues, particularly relating to equity. Several speakers discussed the impact of carbon abatement both across income groups and across the developing world, and the extent to which lower-income communities in developed economies and developing countries would bear the burden of curbing emissions.
This is a key problem and is the flipside of local sceptics’ argument that Australia should not act until other countries act. Capitalism and trade has lifted hundreds of millions of people, especially in our own region, out of abject poverty in recent decades, but there remain billions more whose standard of living, and carbon emissions, remain far below our own, and whose efforts to escape poverty will dwarf our own efforts to reduce emissions. Ross Garnaut argued that there needs to be a long-term equalisation of emissions per capita, with emissions in effect shifting from developed to developing countries to enable poorer countries to improve their citizens’ standard of living.
The question is, are western voters prepared to accept the resources shift that this equalisation entails? Or do they prefer that people in developing countries remain mired in poverty in order to curb global carbon emissions?
Another speaker, British conservative Iain Murray, was one of the few to address the problem of responding to climate change impacts, arguing technology, resilience and adaptation were essential, especially for developing countries that had limited resources to handle problems like more extreme weather.
It may smack of defeatism but any except the biggest sceptic or greatest optimist on climate matters should accept that adaptation is a critical issue, especially given Australia is more vulnerable, and vulnerable earlier, than most countries to climate change impacts. As another speaker noted, the key impacts of climate change, like more extreme weather, increased disease and greater numbers of heat-related deaths, are all problems that have to be managed now, regardless of whether they are increasing in frequency.
The conservative position is that the richer, more entrepreneurial and better governed societies are, the more effective they will be at adapting to climate change and handling its impacts. It is hard to fault that position, except to note that it’s being rich and entrepreneurial that has engendered the problem in the first place.
Many environmental groups, particularly more left-wing ones, have responses to each of these issues. They support a massive increase in assistance from the developed to the developing world. They support large and ongoing subsidies for renewable power, regardless of its viability. They support welfare programs for low-income earners. They support international structures that can intervene within national borders to check carbon emissions.
Many of the rest of us, however, struggle with these issues. How many comfortable middle-class city dwellers have thought through the trade-off between developed and developing countries, or the need for higher taxes to support renewable like wind that might never be commercially viable? How many of us just hope that a few green light bulbs, a few thousand less cement and aluminium jobs and a technological breakthrough or two will do the trick?
Sometimes it pays to consider your opponents’ arguments carefully. They can tell you things about your own views that you would never have thought of.
Considering the arguments.
1. I agree that accounting for carbon emmissions is difficult. Thats why I think an ETS is a waste of time and we should tax carbon at source.
2. There is no dispute that we have no choice but to go for abatement, but if we don’t go for reductions as well then in 50 years we will be in a place where no abatement is possible. How do you abate the failing of most of the worlds river systems?
3. Yes, renewable energy is more expensive than the dollar cost of coal. But its less expensive than the fully-costed price of coal e.g including the externality of the end of civilisation. So yes, energy prices must go up. Thats not a counterargument, it just a reality.
4. Old folk move to warm climates? They tend to flee hurricanes as fast as their little zimmer frames will carry them and generally swim badly.
Yeah Jeremiah I am. I’m not sure about how to tackle the issue, but on the weight of evidence showing a warming globe (Royal Academy, NASA, etc,etc etc ad infinitum vs’s the sceptics, a relatively small group of hired guns working for polluters) I lean towards the facts bsed evidence that we do have a problem.
Jeremiah if I was you, I’d sell my coal shares and invest in a clean sunrise industry that will provide a future.
Bernard has fallen into the common trap of failing to consider any of the arguments put forward by proponents of an unfashionable cause, resorting to ad hominen attacks instead.
The key of the matter is that sceptics maintain that the combination of solar irradiation and variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (i.e. Pacific switching from overall cool mode to overall warm mode) explain almost all of the temperature rise in the 1900s. Very little need to add any other factor. See Joseph D’Aleo’s paper on ‘Icecap’ (‘US temperatures and climate factors since 1895’) showing that there is a much better correlation between these two factors and temperature than there is between temperature and CO2 level.
Only in the world of journalism and politics can you get away with debunking your opponents in this fashion without thinking about the fundamental issues.
BTW Jeremiah, why do you single out wind subsidies (and bracket my name with them) when the whole economy is presently being subsudised ?!
Think also of Howard gifting $700,000,000.00 of tax payers money to coal to investigate unproven technology like sequestration at the same time as starving proven alternates of funding!? etc etc etc etc etc
Note: Renewables are only financially unviable until either:
1) We price the harm of the alternatives; or
2) Production reaches a critical mass.
Either of wich would ensure their sustained profitability for as long as our species survives.