“Glenn Moore” has launched a stinging attack on Crikey’s stinging attack on the Bracks budget and we want you to get involved as this will be the biggest issue in the Victorian election.
section (Oct 31) was simply a biased piece of election propaganda.

Crikey said:

“On the budget front, Victoria’s auditor general Wayne Cameron delivered
a pretty heavy blow to the Bracks government’s financial management with
his annual report yesterday.”

The Auditor General’s report actually said:

“My analysis of the State’s overall condition shows that it remains
strong. However, there are a number of vulnerabilities and emerging
pressures which require careful management.”

“The Government has achieved its short-term financial objectives and is
progressing towards the achievement of its broadly stated longer-term
financial objectives. The financial position of the State continues to
remain sound, with net assets of $49.4 billion, an increase of $5.2
billion since the prior year.”

Crikey said:

“Victoria is facing a pincer movement from sweetheart pay deals with
public sector unions and plunging world equity markets.”

“The auditor general revealed that public sector wages spiralled 9 per
cent in 2001-02 which cost $962 million but the full year cost of the
deals struck over the past couple of years will rise to $1.47 billion in
2003-04.”

The Auditor General actually said:

“Costs associated with employee entitlements comprising salaries, wages
and on-costs, amounted to $9.4 billion in 2001-02, an increase of 8.9
per cent or $768 million on the previous financial year.”

The $962 million is the estimated additional cost for 2001-02 of recent
major public sector industrial settlements and additional permanent
staffing decisions. Of this $227 million relates to improving services
through the additional employment of: 1,150 health sector staff; 2,000
education sector staff and 800 additional police.(And the Libs think the
state is still 1,050 short!)

The remainder is the net cost of public sector pay deals, about which
the A-G said:

“…for the year ended 30 June 2002, wage rate growth in Victoria was on
par with the Australian average but below the wage rate growth for New
South Wales and Queensland. However, the percentage change increase in
Victoria of 3.7 per cent from the corresponding quarter of the previous
year was the highest of the jurisdictions …and above the Australian
average percentage change for the period of 3.2 per cent.”

Crikey said:

“The budgeted $500 million surplus in 2002-03 is predicated on the
assumption of a 7 per cent return on investment markets but the AG has
revealed that Victoria’s investment funds dropped $461 million in the
September quarter and unfunded superannuation liabilities rose $384
million.”

Commenting on the $461 million unrealised revaluation loss, the Auditor
General also said:

“Equity investments are held to fund longer-term liabilities, with the
ultimate value of these investments crystallising upon their
realisation. However, the short-term volatility in investment markets
can significantly impact on the reported financial performance of
investing agencies and consequently, the operating results of those
agencies and the State in any one financial year.”

“Equity investments are subject to the volatility of equity markets in
the short to medium-term. However, over the longer-term, equity
investments have provided significant returns to the above investing
agencies [i.e. Transport Accident Commission, Victorian Workcover
Authority, Victorian Managed Insurance Authority and the State
Superannuation Fund] through increasing share values.”

Crikey said:

“With the smoking ban wiping out another $100 million of budgeted
revenues this year, Victoria is definitely in deficit as we speak.”

Maybe, but other income items are consistently under forecast, such as
conveyancing revenue, about which the A-G said:

“In each of the past 3 years, the impact of property price increases and
the sustained strength of the property market on the State’s Budget
Estimates have been under-estimated. It should, however, be acknowledged
that the difficulty of forecasting conveyancing duty is not confined to
Victoria.”

Without a comprehensive analysis of all current revenue and expense,
Crikey cannot possible justify a statement that “Victoria is definitely
in deficit.”

Crikey responds

Bring on the budget update, I say. I’ll bet you $100 that Victoria will report a deficit this financial year. Another small example is the forecast revenues from Crown casino, which the Bracks government is tipping will rise from $92.4 million in 2001-02 to $110 million in 2002-03. Crown last week said revenues were down, partly thanks to the smoking ban.

The Seal Rocks payout will also hit the budget and I’m very doubtful that they will meet stamp duty forecasts given the slowdown in the property market. There was no specific budget allocation for the Commonwealth Games which will cost taxpayers more than $500 million.

Similarly, there is no specific allocation for the Spencer Street redevelopment in the last budget and only a mention of an investment of between $200 million and $300 million. Lo and behold, the government then does a deal to pump in $1 billion over 30 years.

After a blowout of almost $1 billion in 2001-02, superannuation is looking like a potential $500 million blowout in 2002-03 and then you’ve got the issue of election promises.

Even if they do scrape through with a surplus, it is hard to get away from the argument that the Bracks government is an old-fashioned tax and spend operation. Tax revenue is forecast to rise 10 per cent on the 2001-02 budget forecast to $8.75 billion.

After Jeff Kennett froze water prices for a couple of years, Bracks went back to the old annual increase and then jacked up dividends from water from $265 million last year to a forecast $304 million this year.

Bracks also abolished the winter energy concession which saved him more than $50 million a year.

And how can anyone claim a deficit when unfunded superannuation liabilities are forecast to keep rising. Unfunded super peaked at about $19 billion in 1993 but then came down every year under the Kennett government to almost $11 billion.

The final months of Kennett saw some big contributions into super with a total of $2.2 billion being pumped in back in 1999-2000, but this fell to $1.44 billion in 2000-01 as the unfunded liabilities started rising again.

The latest forecast is that unfunded super liabilities will hit $12.76 billion in 2003, rising to $13 billion in 2004, $13.5 billion in 2005 and $13.6 billion in 2006.

A responsible government would allocate enough from the budget each year to see unfunded superannuation liabilities fall. The Queensland Labor government insists on having a fully funded scheme and if investment returns falls short of forecast they plug the gap directly through the budget.

That’s all for now but please send in your thoughts as we want to have a healthy debate about economic and budgetary management over the next four weeks.