There must be some Liberal Party members this morning pondering whether Peter Costello really does have the stuff to be a successful leader of the party come the day that John Howard departs.

Presumably the person who had $10,000 on Malcolm Turnbull to get the job at Sportingbet’s price of $6.50 last Friday would agree with the doubters. Yet we should not take too much notice of the betting market from this single bookmaker which has a substantial theoretical profit margin built in.

The only way Mr Turnbull could be value at the current price of $3.10 is if you think the Coalition Government is going to be returned to office, for if the Government is defeated it is highly likely that he will be going down with the ship in his seat of Wentworth.

Which is why Peter Costello, despite everything being said this week, still deserves to be seen as Mr Howard’s likely successor. He at least is certain to hold his seat come what may on election day.

And when you take out the bookmaker’s margin he is still favourite, as our Crikey Liberal Leader After Howard Indicator shows:

Peter Costello 53%
Malcolm Turnbull 23%
Any Other Candidate 9%
Dr Brendan Nelson 7%
Tony Abbott 6%
Julie Bishop 1%
Alexander Downer 1%