Twelve months is a long time in Treasury.

After the optimism, almost comic in hindsight, on budget night 12 months ago, today we had this from Treasurer Wayne Swan:

“The truth is that the global economy is capable of changing dramatically, quickly, and having different effects on the economy at different times.”

No kidding. And tonight, we second-guess economic metamorphosis again to decide just how much trouble Swan — and more accurately, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott — is really in.

In Parliament House, it’s the biggest show in town. Nervous staffers pace the corridors, whispering in corners. Journalists dart in and out of offices as senior pollies prowl the press gallery to spruik their messages. The Coalition frontbenchers seem more confident and expansive, while there seems to be an edge to some of the Labor honchos.

Sunny Canberra is looking beautiful in its autumn colours, but no one’s admiring the trees; it’s coffees all around as journalists scramble to get everything in order before they head into the media lock-up at 1.30pm, where it will be heads down for six hours.

Our crack team — Crikey‘s Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane, deputy editor Cathy Alexander and senior journalist Andrew Crook, plus Australia Institute economist Richard Denniss (and gallery cartoonist-of-choice First Dog on the Moon roaming the halls) — are surrendering their mobile phones to descend into the lock-up. As Wayne Swan delivers his address at 7.30 AEST our coverage will roll out online, with a special Crikey Insider edition in your inbox soon after 8pm.

And tomorrow, all the reaction from the economists, key stakeholders and our expert writers.

The autumn colours and the coffee-swilling journalists will be back for the next budget in 12 months’ time. As to who will be in government, who will be the treasurer, and what the budget will look like? That may change entirely.