Labor remains on course for a narrow win in the coming Victorian state election, new polling from Essential Research shows.

Polling conducted over the course of October, with a sample size of 899, shows Victorian Labor on 38%, the Coalition on 39% and the Greens on 12%, for a 52%-48% 2PP outcome in favour of Labor.

Labor’s vote is down a point since September and down three points since July, but the shift appears mainly to have been to the Greens, which are now at their highest support level since February. The Coalition’s vote is steady, but at 39% is down two points from June and three points from April.

In NSW (sample size 1196), the Coalition has recovered a substantial lead over Labor, picking up two points on its primary vote since September to move to 44% while Labor remains on 36%. The Greens remain on 8% for a 2PP outcome of 54%-46% in the Coalition’s favour, up a point since September.

In Queensland (sample size 694), the Liberal National Party has picked up a point to reach 39%, while Labor has picked up a point to move to 38%. The Greens have fallen from 10% to 6% since September, but more significant is a collapse in the Palmer United Party vote — down to just 5%, from 7% in September, 9% in August and 12% in May. At 5%, the PUP will struggle to make an impact on the election, and is in danger of falling to the same level as the now-disregarded Katter Party. Clive’s loss, however, might be other independents’ gain, with Other support up to 10%. The Queensland 2PP outcome is 50%-50%, down from 51%-49% in Labor’s favour in September, but restoring the finely balanced situation since June, when it first moved to 50-50.