Mike Baird

Mike Baird’s Coalition government in NSW has surrendered most of its huge lead over Luke Foley’s troubled Labor Party, state-based polling from Essential Research shows.

Despite further demonstrations of the corrupt past of NSW Labor via the conviction of Eddie Obeid, and Foley’s opposition to Baird’s ban on greyhound racing (which has strong support), the Coalition’s lead over Labor in the April-June quarter has fallen from 56%-44% early in the year to 52%-48%. The Coalition’s vote is down three points to 44% while Labor’s is up three points to 37%; the Greens are down a point on 9%. The sample size is more than 3700; in the most recent monthly poll in June (sample size: 1166), the Coalition’s lead was down to 51%-49%.

In Victoria, the Andrews government appears to have been unharmed by the Country Fire Authority dispute. Its primary vote is steady on 38% compared to the first quarter of the year, while the Coalition remains on 41%; the Greens are down a point to 12% for an unchanged two-party preferred outcome of 53%-47% for the quarter on a sample size of 2800. In June (sample size: 860), Labor’s lead was down to 52%-48%.

In Queensland, the Palaszczuk government leads the Liberal National Party 51%-49% based on a quarterly result (sample size: 2251), with the LNP on 40%, Labor on 37% and the Greens on 8%, while “others” is up to 12%. That compares to a 52%-48% Labor lead in the first quarter of the year. In June (sample size: 700), the two-party preferred outcome was 50%-50%.

In South Australia, NXT is now a major party in its own right: its primary vote is five points to 20% since early in the year, while Labor is down three points to 34% and the Liberals up a point to 30%; the Greens are down two points to 7%. The two-party perferred outcome, from a sample of 912 across the quarter, is 51%-49% to Labor, down from 54%-46% in the first quarter.

In the west, Labor has moved back into the lead: its primary vote is up five points to 39%; the Liberals are down three points to 37% and the Nationals are on 5%, while the Greens are down two points to 10%. From a sample of 1100, Labor leads 51%-49%, compared to a Liberal/National lead of 52%-48% in the first quarter.