It’s as though social media is following tobacco: as it’s constrained by regulation and consumer reticence in the developed world, it looks to the developing world for market growth.

But as Facebook becomes the de facto internet in many parts of the Asia Pacific, it’s become a vector for racism and sectarianism; a space that excludes a free media and an opportunity for governmental surveillance and control.

We can put faces to the people who suffer: like Abdul Basith, 27, who died last month when his Sri Lankan home was burnt in anti-Muslim riots fanned by sectarian posts; or San Rotha, 29, from Kampong Cham in Cambodia, arrested in February on his wedding day for “public insult of the leader and public defamation” as a result of a post he made describing growing authoritarianism in the country.

As The New York Times reported this month, recent racist pogroms in countries like Sri Lanka, and Myanmar have been driven through Facebook posts and shares. Facebook (and WhatsApp) has been the vector for growing sectarianism and fear of outsiders in Indonesia.

According to the company’s quarterly report last Friday, Facebook has about 530 million monthly users in the Asia-Pacific, up 25% on the year before, with India, Indonesia and Vietnam identified as the key drivers of its growth.

In developed economies like North America and Europe, users are flat at about 350 million. The more mature economies still provide most of Facebook’s revenues — about 72% in the quarter, despite being only 18% of users; primarily, Facebook notes “due to the size and maturity of those online and mobile advertising markets”.

But that maturity suggests that both total and average revenues is peaking (or has peaked — the data tells both stories) in the developed world. So future growth is dependent on Facebook becoming almost a proprietary internet in the developing world, particularly here in the Asia-Pacific region.

Partly, it’s had the luck of timing. By the time the mass internet became available in the Asia-Pacific, the social media web was already entrenched and so became the default interface in the region — particularly for e-commerce. At the same time, the region was pre-programmed for the mobile web. Land lines were rare and expensive (or, in mine-ridden countries like Cambodia, just too dangerous to lay). And, by being primed for mobile, Facebook became entrenched.

In many poor and developing countries, Facebook built penetration through Free Basics — a limited (but free) mobile service to “content on things like news, employment, health, education and local information”. Although Free Basics is now available in most of the region, it was blocked in the largest potential market, India, out of concerns at the power it would cede Facebook.

Facebook’s algorithmic tweaks have also undermined an often weak press freedom. Sri Lanka and Cambodia were two of six countries selected for a 2017 trial, to divert news to a separate Explore tab. Explore was described by one affected editor in Slovakia as causing the biggest drop in Facebook organic reach ever seen.  

The Phnom Penh Post reported that views of its Khmer language Facebook page dropped by almost half and, according to media affected, this year’s January algorithm tweaks meant that reader numbers never bounced back, even after Explore was junked.

Facebook remains a threat to authoritarian leaders, such as Cambodian strong man Hun Sen. As a result, Cambodia (and others) are adopting the Chinese model of intensive surveillance of social media, picking up postings like San Rotha’s. Almost random prosecutions send a message that Facebook is no safe place.

Facebook is not blind to this problem. They understand both the moral and the economic imperatives of expunging hate speech. But where Facebook is the internet, there’s a lot more riding on them getting it right.