New age of nukes: why Biden needs to act to prevent a global arms race

Two days after Joe Biden was sworn in as president of the United States, a new global security pact came into effect. You likely missed it.

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, first adopted in 2017 at a conference convened by the United Nations General Assembly, prohibits member states from taking any measures to develop, test, produce, manufacture or otherwise acquire, possess, or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. While not legally binding on non-participants, supporters believe it will reignite momentum toward the elimination of nuclear munitions.

Their ambition is welcome. After ratification of the Non-Proliferation Treaty half-a-century ago, the world made substantial strides towards nuclear disarmament. A global protest movement applied enormous pressure on governments to ban the bomb. This contributed to a succession of agreements between the two superpowers that slashed the nuclear stockpile and restricted development of new technologies.

In his 1984 State of the Union Address, Ronald Reagan declared “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”. He continued: “The only value in our two nations possessing nuclear weapons is to make sure they will never be used. But then would it not be better to do away with them entirely?”

Then the Cold War ended. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the brief interregnum that left the United States as the world’s lone superpower, the Republican Party forgot the Gipper’s warning. The first demonstration of this collective memory loss came in 1999, when the Clinton administration submitted the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty to the US Senate for ratification. In a portent of what lay ahead, the treaty was rejected 48-51. Every Democrat voted for the treaty, bar the abstention of West Virginia Senator Robert Byrd, Joe Manchin’s predecessor. All but four Republicans voted against. Three of the four Republicans that voted in favour later switched sides to the Democrats.

This breakdown of America’s bipartisan consensus to limit nuclear weapons has left real consequences. Arms reduction efforts have stalled. Existing security frameworks have decayed or collapsed. The global stigma against nuclear arms has eroded. The danger of further proliferation has risen.

Now the United States is adding fuel to the fire with plans to upgrade its existing nuclear inventory. The Trump administration set in motion a 30-year, $2 trillion plan to replace every missile, bomber, submarine and warhead in America’s arsenal with a new generation of deadlier weapons. One submarine alone can already destroy 24 cities, but apparently that just won’t do.

While Republicans howl about Biden’s spending plans to modernize physical and human infrastructure, and shriek that the nation cannot afford such extravagance, they raise not a whimper against this military money pit. Their protests are pure pantomime.

It’s not funny. National security should not be a never-ending game of boys with bigger toys. Trump viewed nuclear weapons as the ultimate “man card” in international diplomacy. He asked his advisers what was the point of having nukes if they couldn’t be used. A valid question if he then followed Reagan’s lead and realised that a world without them would be safer for all.

Trump drew no such conclusion. Instead he regularly shook his nuclear rattle, threatening to rain down “fire, fury and frankly power the likes of which this world has never seen before” on North Korea and warning “any attack by Iran on anything American will be met with great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean obliteration”. Reagan made one off-the-cuff joke about nuclear bombs and never repeated the error. Trump showed no similar restraint.

At their recent Geneva summit, Presidents Biden and Putin reiterated that “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”. They had previously agreed to extend the New START treaty, the only remaining nuclear agreement between both states, by five years and opened the door to future arms talks. This should be encouraged.

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty should also be approved. 185 countries have signed the treaty, with 170 having ratified it. Russia, the United Kingdom and France, all nuclear powers, have committed to it. Australia is also a party.

The last US nuclear explosion was detonated on 23 September, 1992, near the site of the first Trinity blast in 1945. George H W Bush imposed a unilateral testing moratorium five days later. With modern computer simulations, the leaders of the national nuclear laboratories and Strategic Command see no need for future tests. And voters would hardly welcome a resumption of testing less than an hour’s drive from Las Vegas.

Sceptics claim that a world without nukes is a fantasy. They argue the genie is out of the bottle. However, history shows that major arms control initiatives have succeeded before. Chemical weapons, a scourge of World War I battlefields, were banned. Biological warfare was outlawed. Land mines, once a constant, have been curtailed. South Africa, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan all relinquished their warheads. Even if the world cannot eradicate nuclear weapons altogether, we can still mitigate their threat.

The alternative is unacceptable. Trump’s bellicose belligerence was magnified by the knowledge that he alone could instigate a nuclear attack, and that no one could stop him. In a crisis, such a decision might be made in mere minutes. With potential flashpoints around the globe, and the demonstrated potential for false alarms, no single person should have the power of Armageddon at their fingertips on a hair-trigger alert. In Trump’s paws, it was a nightmare prospect.

While still a candidate for the presidency, Joe Biden stated: “The United States does not need new nuclear weapons. Our current arsenal of weapons, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship program, is sufficient to meet our deterrence and alliance requirements.” He must fulfil this pledge. By continuing along the Trump path to double down on its nuclear strategy, the United States risks sparking a new arms race. All without any meaningful public debate.

Thirty years ago America won the Cold War. Somehow we never collected on the promised peace dividend. It’s time we picked up Reagan’s torch for a nuclear-free world and finished the job.