Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine coronavirus
(Image: AP/Esteban Felix)

Late on Monday Australia’s Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) met for its weekly discussion to decide whether to update its advice on the AstraZeneca vaccine. It decided against updating it, leaving Pfizer as the preferred vaccine for the under 60s — although anyone can request AstraZeneca from their GPs.

The meeting came the same day that a 72-year-old woman in South Australia is believed to have died from the rare blood clotting syndrome linked to AstraZeneca.

In late June, the Health Department released a document weighing up the risks of COVID-19 and the AstraZeneca vaccine based on advice from ATAGI. For every 100,000 people aged 18 to 29, 1.9 would develop blood clots and just one hospitalisation would be prevented. For those aged over 80 the risk is the same — 6.2 deaths and 11.5 hospitalisations would be prevented. Clot risk is highest in those aged 40 to 49; five in every 100,000 people develop clots. 

Sydney University infectious disease expert Professor Robert Booy tells Crikey the risk assessment should be updated.

“It varies on where you live, and what your state of health is and whether you have underlying conditions,” he said. “The circumstances have changed in terms of your risk of catching COVID-19. We always need to maintain our sense of proportion and perspective.” 

The University of Queensland is developing a more complex and detailed risk development assessment tool based on these inputs. 

The discussion around risk has become highly politicised, with officials vocally going against ATAGI’s advice. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has advocated that young people should speak to their doctors and get their second dose at eight weeks instead of 12 amid Sydney’s outbreak, and NSW has allowed under 40s to get the AZ vaccine at its mass vaccination hubs. 

On the flip side, other state and territory leaders — including Queensland’s chief health officer Dr Jeannette Young — have criticised the contradictions.

Booy doesn’t think ATAGI is being deliberately risk-averse, and is trying to do the right thing: “There are pressures from many different directions …. Politics plays a role and science should have a robust debate with politics.” 

Professor of biostatistics at the University of South Australia Adrian Esterman tells Crikey ATAGI’s advice is simply based on its seniors’ medical opinions. 

“Really and truly, the risks are incredibly low, and you’ll find a lot of people from around the state who say it’s safe to have it,” he said. “When you’ve got a major outbreak situation and you are seeing a number of people going to hospital then it’s probably time to rethink it.”