unsw quadrangle
University of NSW (Image: Wikimedia Commons)

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced a major easing of border restrictions today that will see over 200,000 visa holders including international students, skilled migrants and refugees return to Australia in coming months. From December 1 fully vaccinated visa holders who have tested negative to COVID-19 will be allowed back into the country without having to apply for an exemption.

This announcement has significant implications for the higher education sector, following years of falling profits, disruption to degrees and general uncertainty about a future without international students. The absence of thousands of international students in Australia has been felt more widely, with knock-on effects to wage growth and skilled-labour shortages.

A survey by student marketing and recruitment firm IDP Connect found that while a large number of prospective students were still considering Australia for their studies, a significant market share has been lost to other major exporters of education.

Across the past two years Australia’s share of global demand dropped by around 5 points to 12%, with the UK and Canada holding mostly steady and the US seeing significant increases. This impact has been felt more keenly in some places than others, with India for example halving their market share in Australia from more than 20% to 9% since the pandemic began.  

The strict closure of the Australian border throughout the pandemic is largely to blame for this shift, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the reopening of the border will spark an immediate return to the numbers of international students who once sought to study in Australia. 

Will international students return?

It is clear that damage has been done to Australia’s tertiary education sector, but what is yet to be seen is whether the pandemic-related factors that turned students away from Australia will be easily reversed once the border reopens. 

Many migrant workers and post-graduation international students have reported becoming disillusioned with Australia after struggling to get work due to their visa status, and a general feeling of their contribution being unappreciated. 

This sentiment, paired with the difficulties Australian international students had when their studies were disrupted by the pandemic, may have impacts that extend beyond the pandemic itself. Confidence in Australia’s border remaining open, as well as vaccine mandates, may also play a part in international students’ decision making.

However, Andrew Norton, professor in the practice of higher education policy at the Australian National University, says we should be optimistic about the return of international students in semester 1 of 2022.

Norton acknowledged the potentially negative sentiment that exists for some students who were forced to abandon their studies in Australia, but said that while “we have lost some market share, we can look forward to a substantial intake of international students in semester 1 of 2022″.

He flagged that there is still some uncertainty about arrival rules, and the affordability of flights into Australia that may have further impact, but that we should still expect a strong return to form. 

While this will be welcome news for universities, the sector’s reliance on international markets came into focus during the pandemic, and will likely remain in the discussion if high numbers of international enrolments don’t materialise. The higher education sector is estimated to have lost $2 billion in revenue in 2021 alone, and major recovery efforts will be required to get the industry back on track. 

Historically our third biggest export, international students are worth $40 billion, and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told Sky News this morning that they “play an essential role in our economy”. 

As such, there’s a lot weighing on getting students back through the door in 2022, and only time will tell if the past two years have left too much uncertain for international students to return.