(Image: Mitchell Squire/Private Media)

After months of bluster, brinkmanship and military build-up, there are warnings Russian troops could invade Ukraine in a matter of days.

Although the Kremlin has slammed the briefings coming out of Washington as “peak hysteria”, there there are more than 130,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, regular military exercises, and an increasingly desperate tone to frequent diplomatic efforts between world leaders.

In Australia, the ripple effects of a war in Europe would be felt, no matter the distance between Kyiv and Canberra. In the near future, it could add a khaki tinge to the federal election campaign, much welcomed by a struggling, opportunistic government.

But it could also lead to a more unstable region, and create deeper, longer-term geostrategic challenges.

The early ripples

The standoff on the Ukrainian border is “the starkest piece of power politics since the end of the Cold War”, says Australian National University strategic studies Professor emeritus Hugh White.

But he doesn’t believe conflict is necessarily a foregone conclusion, despite the militarisation of the border. That’s because while it’s unclear what Russian President Vladimir Putin’s operational objectives from an invasion might be, he’s already scored a strategic victory by clarifying that Ukrainian entry into NATO was unacceptable. If an invasion fizzles, Putin won’t lose face, or influence in the region.

The Morrison government is already following the lead of American intelligence in preparing for a potential war. Yesterday Australia evacuated the final diplomatic staff from its embassy in Kyiv, with officials moving to the safer western city of Lviv. Prime Minister Scott Morrison accused Russia of “threatening and bullying” Ukraine, actions he deemed “completely unacceptable”.

The khaki election?

Unsurprisingly, the precarious situation in Ukraine has quickly become entangled in our election-focused domestic politics. Over recent weeks, Defence Minister Peter Dutton has repeatedly warned about the prospect of an invasion, and has used it, almost in the same breath, as an opportunity to paint Labor as weak on national security.

Dutton is leading the government’s attempts to make national security an election issue. He’s also trying to position himself as Morrison’s natural successor as Liberal leader. Expect him to frequently return to the subject of Ukraine as voters head to the polls.

UNSW Canberra international and political studies Professor Clinton Fernandes believes we are seeing an attempt to dial up the war rhetoric in the context of an election.

But it might not be all that effective. In recent years, Australia’s national security establishment has focused on the threat of China, so fears about Russia might not resonate all that much among voters.

“We’ve had a permanent press conference against China every day for the past three years. That ground hasn’t prepared with Russia,” he said.

A less stable region

The real implications of a Russian invasion could last well beyond the May election. China’s rise, and the US’ corresponding decline, means continuing strategic power rivalry in the Indo-Pacific is going to be an inevitable challenge for Australia over coming decades.

The standoff in Ukraine has kept the US refocused on Europe but, more importantly, it gives Beijing a clear signal about the American appetite for a future conflict over Taiwan. White says there are clear parallels between what Russia is seeking to do in eastern Europe and what China wants in the Indo-Pacific: both are trying to carve out an uncontested sphere of influence.

“The fact that the US ruled out from the outset the idea of using armed force in Ukraine sent a very significant signal about the future of an American-led global order,” White said.

That in turn could further embolden China, and accelerate American decline in our region. And given that Australia has for decades taken for granted eternal American primacy, that moment of geopolitical upheaval will be a tough one to swallow.