Lying and a lie-in

A FURPHY AND A LOW BLOW

A Liberal candidate has admitted he fudged his address to the Australian Electoral Commission, and by no slim margin either — he lives 20 kilometres away, The Age reports. Candidate for Isaacs (in southern Melbourne) Robbie Beaton actually lives in inner-eastern Camberwell and has done since 2002 — he says it was an “honest mistake” (his family own a pub in Isaacs) and that he hopes to move to the area soon. But the furphy could put Beaton in breach of Commonwealth law, the paper says. The seat is held by Labor shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus by 6%. It’s actually the second controversy from a Liberal hopeful in the seat in recent years — in 2019 Prime Minister Scott Morrison was forced to disendorse Liberal candidate Jeremy Hearn after he ranted online conspiratorially about Muslims wanting to overthrow the government, the ABC writes. Yikes.

Speaking of a low blow, critics say Morrison scraped the bottom of the barrel yesterday in saying opponent Anthony Albanese had a “quiet” week at home with COVID-19 compared to the PM’s own isolation week earlier this year. Albanese did five TV interviews and eight radio interviews during his isolation, Guardian Australia adds. Speaking of, did you catch his chat with former Australian of the Year Grace Tame in InStyle? Albo did a fashion shoot that looks rather John le Carré, and the Labor leader shared a little of his past (he was raised by a single mum who couldn’t work due to illness, and Albanese said it’s what has inspired him to work hard). Tame was so moved she ended up shedding a few tears. Albanese is actually out of isolation today and headed to Perth, The West ($) says. Labor’s official campaign launch is in WA on Sunday, Sky News adds, the first time a party has launched a federal campaign there.

[free_worm]

CASH RATE

Will they or won’t they? All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next week as major banks bank on it to finally increase our interest rate. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has given the RBA what the AFR worded as a “gentle nudge” to wait for wage data due at the end of the month like it said it would, but markets have already priced in an increase from 0.1% to 0.25%, some 15 base points. Westpac became the third of the big four to predict the rate increase yesterday, The Australian ($) reports.

The last time the cash rate went up during an election, John Howard lost — Prime Minister Scott Morrison is already boasting that his government is the best to handle things moving forward, but shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers was like, um, this happened under your watch? It’s a “triple whammy of skyrocketing inflation, falling real wages, and rising interest rates” at the moment, Chalmers said on the Today Show, and Australians in the middle- and lower-income brackets are copping it the worst. Indeed wholesale electricity is up 67% (!) from January to March and 141% higher than this time last year, the Herald Sun ($) reports, a cost that is in a big way passed onto the consumer.

We are headed towards a clear economic downturn in the next year or so, the Industry Australia boss has warned. Innes Willox says the RBA can’t fix labour shortages, skills shortages and choked supply chains, and called for a boost in skilled migration and an urgent upskilling of the workforce, The Australian ($) reports.

GRIM ALLEGATIONS

Scientology has been accused of child trafficking, covering up sexual assaults, and forced labour of three Australians in an explosive legal claim in the US, the SMH writes. The trio alleged the “Sea Org” and “Cadet Org” entities asked them to sign “billion-year” contracts, kept them in an engine room aboard a cruise ship for days as punishment, and separated children from their parents. One of the accusers alleged at 10 years old he only saw his parents for three hours a week and worked 10 unpaid hours a day, while another said she had to do the laundry of her alleged abuser after reporting him. The Australian plaintiffs want “compensatory and punitive damages” against Scientology leader David Miscavige and five of its organisations.

Meanwhile, in Poland, paedophiles, traffickers and opportunistic criminals are targeting vulnerable Ukrainian refugees, Crikey’s Amber Schultz reports. Between 2017 and 2020, at least 600 Ukrainians were trafficked into Poland — it’s prompted background checks for all volunteers at the makeshift centre, which showed nearly one in 10 applicants being refused — some being known human traders, police say. Schultz was on the ground in Poland, and her cracking reporting is a vivid insight into the real human consequences of the war.

ON A LIGHTER NOTE

The Guardian’s Sinéad Stubbins has discovered something shocking about herself: she’s friendly. The incredible discovery came on a nondescript morning as she and another woman waited for the physio to open. After exchanging some eye-crinkles (the smile of the pandemic) and casual collusion over polite-but-firm knocking on a door (the physio had forgotten to unlock it), Stubbins began to realise something — she loved the warmth of this woman on that chilly morning, but she had been warm too. Really, Stubbins ponders, it goes to the stories we’ve been telling ourselves about ourselves forevermore — that we are shy, or gullible, or moody, or testy without our coffee. But though these things might’ve been true once, are they still true?

These stories about ourselves can be “so stuffed with preconceived truths that we assume no new or contradictory stories can fit in there too”, she says. If she is friendly, as the interaction made her realise (with a bit of a jolt), what other things about herself could be true? Could she be brave, good at giving directions, or a considerate driver? Maybe it was time to shake off the labels, particularly as they so often tend to lean into the negative. It’s worth pondering, folks. After all, our thoughts become feelings become actions become results, and it costs nothing to be kind to ourselves — as well as strangers at physios.

Wishing you a fresh look at life today and a restful weekend ahead.

SAY WHAT?

This guy is smart. Everyone should listen to him. He likes economic opportunity and decarbonisation. He’s interested in building Australia’s clean industrial future …

Tim Wilson

Did the Liberal MP for Goldstein chuck an “Angus Taylor” in publicly congratulating himself without remembering to switch social media accounts, or was it a stunt? Either way, Wilson was “ratio’d” — a Twitter term for when your likes on a post (in this case, 120) are drastically outnumbered by jeering comments (902).

CRIKEY RECAP

Brace yourself: the cost of living is about to empty your wallet even faster

Jason Murphy

Apr 28, 2022

4

“If banks pass a rate rise through — and we can expect them to pass it through at a velocity astrophysicists would be excited to measure — families need to find $165 extra a month on the average new Australian home loan of $595,000. Just what they need. In Sydney and Melbourne, where loans are higher, payments on loans will be higher.

“The market now expects interest rates of 3.3%, not 3.5%, that in September 2023. That’s because rate hikes that come sooner should prevent the inflation that would cause rates to rise even higher. It shows the whole point of rate rises — pain now can reduce pain later.”

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Your income is lower than in 2013 — and it’s getting worse under Scott Morrison

Bernard Keane and Glenn Dyer

Apr 28, 2022

27

“This means Morrison will be the first prime minister to see wages materially go backwards on his watch. Since John Howard (the WPI series began in 1997) most prime ministers have presided over inflation and wages coming out about equally. The best performer was Julia Gillard, who oversaw cumulative real wages growth of 0.3% in total. If Morrison loses on May 21, he is likely to leave office with the worst record of all.

“Yesterday’s result means that the government’s March economic forecasts for wages are already in danger of becoming irrelevant. The budget forecasted CPI growth of 4.25% over 2021-22, which means there will need to be a major fall in inflation, to virtually zero, in the current quarter to meet the target.”

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Advance Australia targets Steggall, Pocock and Labor one provocative billboard at a time

Kishor Napier-Raman

Apr 28, 2022

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“Despite this, Advance appears to lack a seemingly effective or coherent electoral strategy. This could reflect changes that have come through at the top. Its founding director, Gerard Benedet, a former Liberal staffer, quit to work for the Pharmacy Guild. His successor, Zed Seselja staffer and Sky News regular Liz Storer, seems to be gone.

“Now the joint is run by Matthew Sheahan, a man with no real public profile, beyond backing a few anti-same-sex marriage petitions on Facebook in 2017. Advance did not respond to requests for comment. One recent addition at the top is former ACT Liberal MLA Vicki Dunne, who joined the group as a director last month, days after ending ties with her local party branch.”

THE COMMENTARIAT

Federal-state haggling over disasters must stop — Dominic Perrottet (The Australian) ($): “The problem is, while states are at the front line of response and recovery, and can tailor support to meet the urgent needs of the people affected, they can be guaranteed the federal government will reimburse a share of the cost only if the proposed programs meet certain federal regulatory and legislative criteria … This uncertainty acts as a handbrake on the speed of the response because it means while people’s hopes and homes are sinking, with every new disaster state and federal politicians and bureaucrats have to engage in long and technical negotiations about how much funding can be allocated to which programs, whether they meet the relevant requirements and what bureaucratic steps must be taken before money can start flowing.

“The only alternative to negotiation is for the states to go it alone and shoulder the entirety of the risk and the cost at the expense of their own fiscal security. This is bureaucratic duplication at its worst, and for people waiting for help the redundant red-tape ritual is insulting and infuriating. Yet it is baked into the system, so the only solution is to redesign the system in a way that gets help to people faster.”

Your Kids Can Handle Dangerous Ideas — Matt Gross (The New York Times): “To me, the more hands-off approach is also the more realistic one. It acknowledges that our children are, in some basic sense, beyond our control: not precious innocents to be culturally cocooned, but thinking, feeling, increasingly independent human beings who are busy making up their own minds (and who are anyhow likely carrying around devices that give them unfettered access to billions of ideas and images, without any meaningful controls) …

“Still, I won’t dictate their preferences: I want them to navigate this huge, messy planet on their own, when they’re old enough to — and be ready for things not to go their way. Letting go can be scary at times, as a parent, because they will encounter real dangers. Last year, for instance, we had a delightful discussion about what [my daughter] Sasha should do if — or, really, when — a man exposes himself to her on the New York City subway. This isn’t modern liberal parenting; if anything, it’s old-fashioned … Will Sasha skip school? I hope so — and I hope not. But if she does, she shouldn’t tell me. At least not for another decade. Then we can laugh about it over cocktails.”

READ ALL ABOUT IT

[Liberal MP for Wentworth Dave] Sharma labelled fossil fuels a ‘necessary evil’ (The SMH)

Turkey’s Erdogan visits Saudi Arabia as relations warm (Al Jazeera)

Inside Twitter, Fears Musk Will Return Platform to Its Early Troubles (The New York Times)

Iran executions: Alarming rise in use of death penalty in 2021 – report (BBC)

Climate change may increase risk of new infectious diseases (CBC)

U.S. GDP Falls 1.4% as Economy Shrinks for First Time Since Early in Pandemic (The Wall Street Journal) ($)

Ex-general jailed for war crimes by foreign fighters in Bosnia (Al Jazeera)

Police shut down follower criticising use of te reo Māori in Facebook post (NZ Herald)

Biden announces $33bn to help Ukraine in war (BBC)

Snapchat’s Evan Spiegel dismisses Facebook’s metaverse as ‘hypothetical’ (The Guardian)

HOLD THE FRONT PAGE

WHAT’S ON TODAY

Online

• LinkedIn’s Karin Kimbrough and Nous Group’s Richard Bolt will chat about green skills in the Australian economy and workplaces in an event held by CEDA.

Yuggera Country (also known as Brisbane)

• Author Graeme Simsion will chat about his book, The Novel Project: A Step-by-Step Guide to Your Novel, Memoir or Biography, at Avid Reader bookshop. You can also catch this one online.