Political earthquake as Liberal heartland turns on Morrison

In a stunning moment in Australian politics, the heartland of the Liberal Party has turned on the Morrison government and dispatched some of its highest-profile figures out of politics, with a huge swing in Victoria to Labor and independents, and teal independents seizing key Liberal seats in Sydney.

Federal treasurer and Liberal heir apparent Josh Frydenberg is the biggest casualty, losing Kooyong to independent Monique Ryan. Junior colleague Tim Wilson is also out, defeated by independent Zoe Daniel in Goldstein.

Labor is now in a position to form a minority government and may yet win sufficient seats to form government in its own right.

The Liberals look to have suffered a 5% swing in Victoria, and also lost Chisholm and the once safe seat of Higgins to Labor.

In Sydney there were further shocks: independent Allegra Spender easily dispatched sitting MP Dave Sharma in Wentworth; in Mackellar, once the bluest of blue-ribbon seats, Jason Falinski was smashed by independent Sophie Scamps; Kylea Tink easily defeated Liberal moderate Trent Zimmerman.

The swing against the government was also in the order of 5% in NSW, but Labor also went backwards and looks to have lost the safe seat of Fowler to Liberal-linked independent Dai Le. Labor’s decision to parachute in former NSW premier Kristina Keneally is now looking enormously costly.

Labor also struggled to pick up seats elsewhere, failing to make a dent in the Liberal vote in Tasmania and only picking up Brisbane in Queensland (albeit still in doubt, with the Greens also in with a chance), losing Griffith to the Greens and having to watch the Greens snatch Ryan.

In South Australia, a near 6% swing against the government has given Boothby and Sturt to Labor.

It was a better story for Labor in Western Australia, where predictions of a strong Labor result (after years of trying) finally proved correct: Labor picked up Pearce, Swan, Curtin and Hasluck and looked a strong chance in Moore.

As we write, Labor remains short of a majority, still needing four to five seats to go its way to reach 76 seats. The more likely scenario is a massive crossbench of teal independents, Greens and usual suspects Andrew Wilkie, Bob Katter and Helen Haines left to negotiate with both sides.

The success of the teal independents is extraordinary, with even their most ardent supporters surprised by their success in Liberal heartland seats, and an air of surprise and astonishment among Tink supporters.

The visceral nature of the reaction of the Liberal heartland may be a rupture that takes several elections to heal. Whether the independents have a chance to leverage their power in a minority government is the remaining question of election night 2022.