Why do politicians think they can get away with whatever they want?

The Perrottet government in NSW has plainly been caught out by the shift in public and media sentiment over what used to be a normal part of politics — pork-barrelling and jobs for mates. That shift is almost entirely down to Scott Morrison, who as prime minister presided over the elevation of pork-barrelling and jobbery to a level so egregiously in violation of traditional norms that it began shifting votes, even among the politically disengaged.

But that doesn’t explain exactly why Stuart Ayres, and his colleagues, didn’t see the appointment of John Barilaro — a notorious pork-barreller himself — to a $500,000 a year New York job as likely to offend voters and spark a media frenzy. Or why they thought what turns out to have been a fairly pathetic cover-up by Ayres was ever going to resist the most basic scrutiny.

Even after being forced to resign, Ayres maintains he had no role in Barilaro’s appointment. It’s a claim that borders on the delusional, given the detailed evidence of his former secretary Amy Brown yesterday, and copious documentary evidence that at multiple points in the process he played an important role in favour of Barilaro. His defence has consisted entirely of simply repeating that he wasn’t involved, even as the evidence mounted up that he was. As a political tactic, it hasn’t fared much better than the appalling efforts of Coalition backbenchers on the Legislative Council committee to smear successful candidate Jenny West.

What was going through Ayres’ mind, and those of his colleagues, who were aware of the looming appointment of Barilaro? This was an appointment that even a senior public servant knew was politically problematic, such that Brown called the head of Premier and Cabinet about it, and expressed that she was “nervous” about it to Ayres.

Public servants usually leave the political judgments to the politicians, but even Brown knew this reeked. Why did Perrottet and his team think it was ever going to fly, or that their line that Barilaro had simply succeeded through a standard public service recruitment exercise was ever going to stand up?

These are political professionals, whose whole career is based on understanding the electoral mood, who have at their disposal a wide array of tools for reading that mood. But a public servant knew better than them that Barilaro was toxic. In fact, any random person pulled off Macquarie St could have told them that.

This is what happens when you’ve been in government for a long time, when no one is around who remembers not having the comforts and ease of incumbency, when being in power seems the natural state of affairs that will never change, when taxpayer resources and the offices of state come to seem assets to be disposed of as a political party sees fit, without reference to the public interest.

The NSW Liberals have the extra challenge that NSW Labor have been easybeats since they were thankfully ousted from office in 2011. That’s now changed. The state opposition looks substantial and credible. Generational change has removed the foul stench of Obeid and other crooks. The Legislative Council inquiry dissection of the Barilaro scandal has been led with diligence and forensic skill by opposition treasury spokesman Daniel Mookhey, who also impressed with his prosecution of the TAHE scandal last year.

Perrottet has been at pains to present not as a three-term government seeking a fourth but as a reinvigorated, young government under new management, which understands the electorate’s concerns about climate, cost of living and the status of women. In Matt Kean, Perrottet has a treasurer who can effectively pursue those agendas and place them within a coherent story of government. But Ayres’ actions and the failure of Perrottet and his brains trust to spot the danger belies the fresh image, every bit as much as it wrecked coverage of Kean’s excellent budget in June.

As the Morrison, previous NSW Labor and Howard governments all demonstrated, staying in office for multiple terms distorts your political judgment and understanding of what is electorally acceptable. The result is often a kind of paralysis, in which incumbents know that they’re in deep trouble, but can’t muster the energy or ideas to change course, or leadership, and just end up hoping their opponents will find another way to lose an election.

The Perrottet government, at the tail end of the best NSW government since the Greiner years, can’t put too much stock in NSW Labor losing again. The opposition is now odds-on to replace an increasingly shambolic outfit next March.

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